BRAZIL: Ideology is crowd-pleaser, but electoral pragmatism new normal
President Jair Bolsonaro will talk the talk on ideological platforms but reelection in 2022 calls for pragmatism. There is increasingly little room for far-right policymaking. Stress with the arrest of a Bolsonarista congressman shows the limits of Bolsonaro’s capaci… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember […]
BRAZIL: Congress flexing muscles as “imperative” emergency assistance stalls
As foreseen, both pro-government candidates won the presiding posts in the House and the Senate on 1 February on the basis of pork and patronage. The risk of impeachment has decreased accordingly but both new House Speaker Arthur Lira from the Progressives (PP) and Senate Chairma… Become a member to read the rest of […]
BRAZIL: Crucial House election will be late nail-biter and hold agenda hostage
There is a growing perception that President Jair Bolsonaro’s denialist approach to the Covid-19 pandemic has reached its high point. In the last few days, two northern states – Amazonas and Para – have experienced a significant increase in the number of deaths of Covid-19 patien… Become a member to read the rest of […]
BRAZIL: Impasse in Congress, with controversial Supreme Court decision ahead
As noted previously, Brazil’s economic agenda, including pandemic-related measures and structural reforms, are only likely to start moving if the elections of the new House Speaker and Senate Chairman are somehow “resolved”. They are to take place in February 2021, but the hope has been that political leaders could reach an understanding before then that […]
BRAZIL: Weaker post-municipals Bolsonaro still main 2022 contender
President Jair Bolsonaro’s to-and-fro strategy in the municipals failed but his future hinges mostly on his capacity to govern. The elections showed a flight to the center, away from extremes to the Right or the Left. A multi-faceted centrist challenge to Bolsonaro is emerg… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Legislative head, not municipal elections, will move economic agenda
Municipal election results in November will not have much influence on the economic agenda. Elections for the presiding officers of both chambers of Congress will delay decisions until February 2021. Only then will it be clear whether government clout or congressional independen… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Pragmatism should prevail over initial Biden-Bolsonaro bad blood
Bolsonaro’s handling of illegal deforestation is the main source of discord between Biden and the Brazilian president.A potential Democratic administration may help Brazil in favoring multilateralism.China’s growing influence in Brazil may bring the US and Brazil closer under a… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Sao Paulo, Bellwether of the 2022 Presidential Elections
One day before the beginning of TV campaigning and 38 days before municipal elections, campaigns in the 5,570 municipalities are beginning to rival national developments as the political priority of the moment. It still seems early for safe projections but the choice of candidate… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Comedy of errors may have killed reform agenda for this year
A new cash transfer program (Renda Cidada) has produced much head-banging but little clarity.Shuffling of reforms to try and find money to finance the program has raised the stakes but made a common approach more difficult.An Economy Minister at loggerheads with House Speaker an… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Outsourcing of cash transfer program to Congress should work
A new and improved cash transfer program continues to be a top priority of the Jair Bolsonaro administration despite bouts of stridency by the president when facing difficulties to find ways to pay for it. Reacting to an economy ministry special secretary who on 15 September pro… Become a member to read the rest […]