Latam October 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Gridlock likely and governability crisis possible after mid-terms Argentina, Politics Nicholas Watson The governing Front for All (FdT) coalition will struggle to avoid a damaging defeat in November’s partial mid-term elections. The government is hoping to limit its losses with unabashed clientelism, but FdT power struggles and highly problematic economic conditions militate... Read More...
The Week at a Glance October 13, 2021 Argentina: New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Isaías Marini Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very... Read More...
The Week at a Glance October 4, 2021 Argentina: Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Isaías Marini This week the government announced a plan for 55-year-old women and 60-year-old men to obtain their retirement if they are unemployed and meet a contribution requirement. The logic of the measure is that it is not easy for this... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 27, 2021 Argentina: Open for Business Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Isaías Marini “High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to a large sample of... Read More...
Econviews Monthly September 24, 2021 Argentina: Special Analysis on Public debt. Will it be sustainable this time? Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini I. A poor election and a Government under pressure Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had reached... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 21, 2021 Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the... Read More...
Latam September 17, 2021 ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum Argentina, Politics Nicholas Watson Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday’s primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cumbersome... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 14, 2021 Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Isaías Marini The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their... Read More...
Latam September 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Mid-term primary takeaways Argentina, Politics Nicholas Watson The governing Front for All (FdT) suffered a major setback in the party primaries held yesterday ahead of the partial mid-term legislative elections scheduled for 14 November – as we previously anticipated. Since voting is obligatory,... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 8, 2021 Argentina: Waiting for the budget Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks... Read More...
