Category: FX

Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross

The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a rising domestic trade surplus and strong capital account inflows.Read the rest

Argentina: Agreement Still Far Away, Busy Summer

The International Monetary Fund mission left Argentina last weekend. The official statement published on Friday by the Washington-based organization suggests that an agreement between the two parties is still distant. In its very particular language, it states that guidelines for a program were discussed, a clearly ciphered message indicating that the substance of an agreement is not near.… Read the rest

US Dollar – Calm before the storm?

The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”.Read the rest

UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions.Read the rest

Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely

Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting.

The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0.50%), and the modalities of its PEPP and APP unchanged.Read the rest