- The proposed rule of law mechanism in the EU remains ambiguous and will likely be postponed due to legal battles, which suits Budapest and Warsaw.
- The threat of financial sanctions could force Poland and Hungary to alter their policies directly linked to the EU funding but will not halt the illiberal drift in other areas.
The German EU Council presidency appears to have reached an agreement with Poland and Hungary that should allow passage of the bloc’s macro budget and the pandemic recovery fund when heads of state or government meet on 10-11 December.… Read the rest
- Poland and Hungary are unlikely to make significant concessions in the negotiations with the EU, at least in the near term.
- The rule-of-law talks could destabilize the wobbly United Right coalition government in Poland.
The Polish government appears committed to finally start the transition away from coal in the power sector. This will require difficult compromises with the country’s influential mining unions, and may trigger new protests and lower support for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party in its electoral strongholds.… Read the rest
A contentious vote on a bill regarding animal rights has triggered the deepest crisis of the United Right coalition government to date. However, since breaking the coalition agreement would leave the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) and its two junior coalition partners more vulnerable, a compromise rather than a collapse of the government is the most likely outcome of the ongoing row.… Read the rest
According to preliminary data from the National Electoral Commission (PKW), incumbent President Andrzej Duda – supported by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party – narrowly won the second round of the presidential election held yesterday, 12 July.… Read the rest
- Neither of the candidates holds a distinct advantage ahead the second round of the presidential election scheduled for Sunday, 12 July.
- Incumbent Andrzej Duda’s victory would mean policy continuity policy, including a further erosion of democratic institutions, keeping tensions with the EU elevated.
President Andrzej Duda will win the first round of the presidential election scheduled for 28 June. The incumbent, however, is unlikely to win an absolute majority of votes to a secure a first-round victory, which points to a highly competitive runoff on 12 July.… Read the rest
● The 10 May presidential election has not been canceled, but no voting will take place on the scheduled date.
● This should lead to a presidential poll entirely held by postal ballot in the coming few months, although the process and timeline are unclear.… Read the rest