Global Letter – The EU: on the money
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SERBIA: Controversial election will solidify dominance of ruling SNS
The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is expected to win the 21 June parliamentary election by a large margin, as the main opposition parties are boycotting the poll. This suggests policy continuity and a greater concentration of power in the hands of SNS. The contested vote may renew public unrest in the near term, while the democratic backsliding may weaken the country’s institutional capacity and business environment in the longer run.
GREECE: Well positioned to deal with economic recession
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stands in a strong position after he dealt successfully with the coronavirus outbreak. Less than 200 people have died, and the country prepares to open to tourists from 1 July.
Economically, things are more challenging for the center-right New Democracy (ND) government as real GDP growth moved into negative territory in Q1 and there are concerns that a decimated tourism season will be the main driver of a deep recession.
However, robust economic support from European institutions and, critically, overall political stability provide Greece with a unique opportunity to register a faster-than-expected recovery.
EUROPE: Political risks to managing second waves
Continued ECB activity has bought EU policymakers time to deliver a response to the economic fallout from Covid-19.
From a Brussels perspective, the biggest challenges are timing and coordination.
Beyond fiscal constraints, domestic politics and institutional capacity pose the biggest hurdles for delivering effective and timely economic recovery packages in several countries.
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
Despite vast differences in the epidemiological situation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the economic reopening is accelerating. Key Russian cities started easing restrictions earlier this week, Latvia is ending the state of emergency today, 10 June, and Romania is expected to follow suit on 15 June. Meanwhile, Ukraine secured a new 18-month arrangement with the IMF, while the upcoming presidential election and the Covid-19 outbreak in the mining regions are dominating the political discussion in Poland.
RUSSIA/US: Expanded Nord Stream 2 sanctions loom
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GERMANY: A stimulus package for consumption, investment – and green policies
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EUROPE: The politics of exit strategies and economic support measures
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EUROPE: CEE PULSE
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SPAIN: Sanchez’s “strange bedfellows” approach
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