Asia September 10, 2021 MYANMAR: Opposition calls for an uprising, but its capabilities remain limited Myanmar, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) this week launched an armed resistance to the junta in Yangon, calling on citizens to “revolt against the rule of the military terrorists.” The NUG also outlined its plans to raise funds to... Read More...
Asia July 27, 2021 MYANMAR: Further down the rabbit hole Myanmar, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim The military-appointed electoral commission yesterday formally nullified the outcome of the 8 November 2020 election that was won overwhelmingly by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). Two weeks ago, the commission said it had... Read More...
Asia July 13, 2021 MYANMAR: Could the generals’ pariah status lead to a humanitarian crisis? Myanmar, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim By the numbers alone, Myanmar is not among the worst hit by the pandemic in Southeast Asia; averaging daily numbers of 70 new cases per million and 1.1 deaths per million, it is faring better than Malaysia and Indonesia... Read More...
Asia May 13, 2021 MYANMAR: Junta pins its strategy on attrition Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim The level of violence on the streets has dropped in recent weeks compared to February and march. Media and internet are severely curtailed, which could be contributing to the decline in reported fatalities, but there are other more significant... Read More...
Asia April 28, 2021 MYANMAR: Still at square one, even after ASEAN summit Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim A statement released yesterday, 27 April, by the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta calls itself, hedged its cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) following a weekend summit that sought to de-escalate the conflict. It... Read More...
Asia March 29, 2021 MYANMAR: Risks increase as junta seems set on breaking protest movement Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim Security forces have intensified their use of force, possibly to break the back of the protest movement. However, there are no signs the standoff will end soon, and a successful crackdown by the junta will result in more isolation. The degradation... Read More...
Asia March 3, 2021 MYANMAR: Political crossroads ahead, with the risk of more violence Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim The demonstrations are frustrating the junta’s attempts to gain legitimacy. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions, which limits the possibility of a political compromise anytime soon. In several scenarios, the economic fallout would be severe. The level of violence in... Read More...
Asia February 16, 2021 MYANMAR: Government crackdown could still intensify Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim In its first press conference since taking power two weeks ago, the military today, 16 February, promised to hold elections and to hand over power to the winning party. However, the assurance will do little to ease political tensions.... Read More...
Asia February 4, 2021 MYANMAR: A decade comes undone Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim The possibility of anti-coup protests and a harsh security reaction are the immediate near-term risks. The US government has threatened sanctions but is likely to find that formulating an effective response and coordinating with other governments to generate immediate pressure... Read More...
Asia February 1, 2021 MYANMAR: A decade comes undone Myanmar, Emerging Markets, Politics Bob Herrera-Lim The state of emergency will last one year but what the military hopes to achieve in that period is unclear. The military may avoid interfering with economic policies and investments to temper the negative effects of the takeover, but it... Read More...
