Alan Brazil

Alan Brazil SOM Macro
Alan Brazil is a former Goldman Sachs market economist and strategist

Background

In 2007, Alan Brazil started a strategy group at Goldman that offered both internal and external investors a perspective on macro themes. Clients thought his views added value because they were unique versus their current sources of macro thinking.  They thought that Alan combined the perspectives of an economist, a trader, a trading desk risk manager and a researcher to create a single consistent views of macro themes and provided asymmetric trade ideas to position for those themes. Over the years many of those views and recommended positioning have been successful. One such example became public in November 2011 when the Wall Street Journal published a piece on my negative views on European Banks, which was the opposite of the house research view at the time.  Part of the success of Alans ideas can be attributed to his learning about the art of investing from many of the top investors in the world from long/short equity hedge funds to large real money asset managers. One of those painful but crucial lessons was adding probably the most important part of any trade: identifying a catalyst that would drive the realization of a trade.

State Of the Markets

( < 1 min read ) Related Reports Still the World’s Safe Haven? Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus Recovery Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises Olam International: Cocoa Against COVID Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

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The Dollar Depreciation Is Just Starting

( < 1 min read ) Related Reports Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty Virus, volatility and valuations RUSSIA: Starting (premature) economic reopening NIGERIA: Ruling APC sounding the informal starting

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Opportunities In The US Housing Market

( < 1 min read ) Related Reports Still the World’s Safe Haven? MEXICO: How would AMLO approach a Biden administration? MEXICO: AMLO to seek fresh winds from allegations against predecessor MEXICO: AMLO probes political and economic reconfiguration opportunities FOCUS: Hard

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Further Downside To The USD From Fed QE

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The Case For Residential Mortgage REITs

( 2 mins read ) Step 1: Macro Theme: The Case For Residential Mortgage REITs– Residential mortgage REITs are cheap because they represent buying Resi assets at distressed levels at a discount Step 2: Fundamental Economic Framework –  Sell-off in

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