Alan Brazil

Alan Brazil SOM Macro
Alan Brazil is a former Goldman Sachs market economist and strategist


In 2007, Alan Brazil started a strategy group at Goldman that offered both internal and external investors a perspective on macro themes. Clients thought his views added value because they were unique versus their current sources of macro thinking.  They thought that Alan combined the perspectives of an economist, a trader, a trading desk risk manager and a researcher to create a single consistent views of macro themes and provided asymmetric trade ideas to position for those themes. Over the years many of those views and recommended positioning have been successful. One such example became public in November 2011 when the Wall Street Journal published a piece on my negative views on European Banks, which was the opposite of the house research view at the time.  Part of the success of Alans ideas can be attributed to his learning about the art of investing from many of the top investors in the world from long/short equity hedge funds to large real money asset managers. One of those painful but crucial lessons was adding probably the most important part of any trade: identifying a catalyst that would drive the realization of a trade.

Key Opportunities On The Path To Net-Zero GHG

( < 1 min) Part 1 Related Reports The Year Of COVID: Retrospective of My 2020 Trades Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus

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The Biden Agenda Unleashed

( < 1 min) Related Reports Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus Recovery ASIA: Biden reassures Asian allies while stressing new areas for cooperation MIDDLE EAST: Biden will not turn on US partners in the region JAPAN: Abe’s resignation leaves

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The US After Trump And COVID

( 7 mins) Step 1: Identify Macro Themes What Will The US Look Like After The 2020 US Elections And The Second Wave of COVID? Step 2: Fundamental Economic Framework Surge In Cases Not Just An Artifact of

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State Of the Markets

( < 1 min) Related Reports Still the World’s Safe Haven? Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus Recovery Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises Olam International: Cocoa Against COVID Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

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The Dollar Depreciation Is Just Starting

( < 1 min) Related Reports Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty Virus, volatility and valuations RUSSIA: Starting (premature) economic reopening NIGERIA: Ruling APC sounding the informal starting

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Opportunities In The US Housing Market

( < 1 min) Related Reports Still the World’s Safe Haven? MEXICO: How would AMLO approach a Biden administration? MEXICO: AMLO to seek fresh winds from allegations against predecessor MEXICO: AMLO probes political and economic reconfiguration opportunities FOCUS: Hard

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Further Downside To The USD From Fed QE

( < 1 min) Related Reports JAPAN: Abe faces new risks as Japan exits state of emergency JAPAN: Abe struggles to find his footing after emergency declaration JAPAN: Abe will continue to seek his legacy abroad as succession race

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