Category: US

Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations

4X Global Research January 18, 2021

Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month.

The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large US twin deficits and expectations of higher domestics inflation while Fed will keep rates on hold, eroding the value of Dollar assets.… Read the rest

Biden’s trump cards and challenges

4X Global Research January 12, 2021

Barring another dramatic twist in an already torturous two months of political upheaval, Joe Biden will find a very full in-tray when he settles into the famed Oval Office in eight days time.… Read the rest

Market Survey Results

Bruno Costanzo November 20, 2020

SURVEY RESULTS: 116 anonymous respondents predominantly financial market professionals.

1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate for the level in 6 months time?”

Market Survey Results 1

2) “If Global GDP in 2021 is around 5-6% as most economists project, what will be the likely impact on US 10 years bond yields?… Read the rest

Trump And Fox New Polls

Bruno Costanzo September 4, 2020

Behind the Fox News Polls

Yesterday, President Trump tweeted out against a recent poll released by Fox News which shows him trailing in battleground states against his 2020 presidential contender Joe Biden.… Read the rest

US Presidential Election Series 2020

Bruno Costanzo December 14, 2020

“2016 was a failure of the imagination, not a failure in data”

– Matthew Shelter, Fox News Pollster

Official Polls Converging with High Frequency Data

As we draw closer to November 3rd, the past week has seen some top outlets (NY Times/Fox News) released a series of polls suggesting the Trump campaign has fallen further behind in the key battleground states.

… Read the rest

US Election Forecast

Bruno Costanzo November 2, 2020

We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes
(see below)

Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver’s (FiveThirtyEight) model?… Read the rest

Our Debut Survey Results

Bruno Costanzo November 18, 2020

Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers.… Read the rest

Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross

4X Global Research December 8, 2020

The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a rising domestic trade surplus and strong capital account inflows.… Read the rest