Here’s what we currently know, with parts of previous updates included for completeness:
— Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities remain intact. But that was never the primary objective of the Israeli operations—much like defeating Hamas or bringing back the hostages was never the true aim.
— The new IRGC command and control structure is in place, with all regional (decentralized) armies participating in the strikes against Israel as a show of strength.
— Iran’s air defenses were offline for approximately eight hours due to a cyber operation, but they are now back up and actively intercepting Israeli drones over Iranian airspace. IDF strikes on key targets continue, albeit at a reduced intensity over the past several hours. Reportedly, Trump has asked Israel to hold back and explore a diplomatic solution. Whether or not that’s true, it’s unlikely to alter Iran’s decision-making.
— 22 out of 24 of Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites remain operational and have been firing consistently since the first wave of attacks began yesterday. We’re currently in the eighth or ninth set of missile launches, targeting both northern and southern Israel.
— The air defense around Tel Aviv is effectively an open goal—interceptors are either depleted or being conserved. Outside of Tel Aviv, interception success rates are reportedly higher. It’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions based on selective video footage, and Israeli censors have banned the publication of damage imagery.
— CNN reported that Iranian officials plan to intensify strikes on Israel in the coming hours. Take that with a grain of salt—it’s not the likeliest outlet for Iranian messaging. So far, the later waves of missile strikes have decreased in quantity but increased in sophistication and payload. The Israeli Ministry of Defense headquarters (Kirya) in Tel Aviv was reportedly hit overnight—possibly by a Fatah II hypersonic missile. It moved fast.
— According to IDF logic, locating the Israeli defense HQ in the heart of Tel Aviv effectively turns the civilian population into human shields, thereby making it a legitimate target—at least by their own interpretation of international humanitarian law. Claims that Iran is deliberately targeting civilians are also weak, given the imprecision of their dud missiles and the fact that most are intercepted. The Iron Dome performs excellently against low-tech Hamas rockets made from stove pipes and kitchen explosives.
— U.S. intelligence estimates Iran has between 2,000–3,000 intermediate-to-long-range ballistic missiles, suggesting Iran is about halfway through its stockpile. Interviews with current and former IRGC commanders—dead or alive—suggest that Iran has built a massive missile arsenal over the past two decades in anticipation of a potential war with the U.S. Storage, especially underground, is their primary challenge. Some reports estimate Iran’s total arsenal at 100,000 ballistic missiles—mostly short-range and of varying quality.
— Liquid-fuel missiles require maintenance and fueling prior to launch, unlike solid-fuel variants, which are quicker to deploy.
— An IRGC official claimed the next round will involve 2,000 missile launches. It’s estimated that Iran can fire up to 3,000 missiles in a single wave, especially if mobile launchers are included. Likely bluster—and maybe even a signal for a ceasefire: “Count your dead and let’s call it even.” At the time of writing, the official Israeli fatality count stands at 2.
— Either way, we’re about to discover the true depth of Iran’s arsenal. Based on previous proxy wars involving Hezbollah, expect at least 10 days of continuous rocket fire before any serious ceasefire considerations.
— Flight logs indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aircraft departed for Greece shortly after his televised speech yesterday. It’s unclear if he was on board.
— Senator Lindsey Graham posted on X: “Game on! Let’s pray for Israel.” If Bibi and his wife are indeed in Greece, they’re safe. His son has reportedly been in Miami since before October 7. One could draw parallels to accusations Israel made about Hamas leaders—billionaires in Doha penthouses or hiding in tunnels surrounded by hostages.
Yes, we understand that Western media paints a different picture. But in our version of reality, the logic would suggest we wouldn’t be here in the first place—assuming everyone acted rationally with access to the same information. And we've been saying said since the first round of exchanges last April that Israel's air defense are not all they made them out to be—nor are Iran's missiles as incapable.
Evidently, the Israeli public is also shell shocked. The average Israeli probably feels less secure than they were 2 days ago. Hardly a success. How many more neighbors more be killed before they feel safe?
We don't time comparing the Israeli regime with the one in Tehran which lost legitimacy decades ago—if it ever had any. Can you believe the brutal, backwards theocratic dictators in Iran are seen as “the good guys” by most of the world? How did we get here?
Historical framing:
In one corner of the ring stands the longest continuously surviving nation—successor to the Babylonians, liberator of the Jews, ruled briefly by Alexander the Great, survivor of the Mongol and Islamic/Arab conquests. Now subject to clerical rule.
We’ll leave it to readers to decide how they define 77-year-old Israel. Still insecure, highly dependent on foreign financial, military, and political support. But that’s the uncomfortable truth and what this is all about.
