There's a lot of attention and speculation as to why Israel delayed its much anticipated incursion into Gaza. Here are our top 2 contenders for the reasons behind the decision:
- There's an unspoken rule that Israel's Iron Dome is unlikely to withstand Hezbollah's 100,000+ missiles supplied by Iran which are more sophisticated and accurate than Hamas' improvised rockets.
- It is well known that last week there was a failed reconnaissance mission by Israeli special forces to gather intelligence on the hostages held captive by Hamas. Israel's official position is that just one soldier died during the operation. In reality, it is almost certain that the entire team perished. This setback is likely to have forced the IDF to reevaluate its plans. The story shares similarities with Operation Eagle Claw, a failed US mission to free the hostages held in the Iranian embassy in 1980 which was said to have ultimately cost Jimmy Carter his presidency.
Here are a couple of extracts from the FT article about Mohammed Deif(“The Guest”) written by Mehul Srivastava (he's very good) on October 8th, 2023, which we highlighted at the time:
They also described a man whose ability to constantly evolve alongside the Israeli military’s technological achievements was illustrated during the ferocious 11-day war between the Palestinian militant group and Israel in 2021. Hamas deployed swarms of low-tech rockets in an attempt to overwhelm Israel’s air defence system, which nearly ran out of munitions before a truce was brokered.
The most significant factor for Hamas is the sheer number of hostages hauled back to Gaza. Israel handed over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to free a single soldier, Gilad Shalit, after five years of captivity by Hamas in 2011. “Hamas understands very well that, when it comes to holding Israeli prisoners, patience is all they need,” said a regional diplomat who helped negotiate Shalit’s release. “Over time, the Israeli public will create the pressure. All Hamas has to do is wait.”
So far, the top experts we identified during the early days of the Israel-Hamas war have been accurate in their analysis.
