“Your enemies always get strong on what you leave behind.”
This may have important implications for oil spot markets: Israel's retaliatory strike options against Iran have been further limited with the White House announcing that the U.S. will not assist in any defense efforts related to counterstrikes. “Shah mat!” as the Persians say at the end of a game of chess. At least for this round. But never underestimate the Israelis. The dance of the scorpions continues while others die.
Hezbollah Has Regrouped
Meanwhile, Hezbollah's new command structure appears to have solidified, and they have begun launching ballistic missiles at Israel. Unconfirmed footage posted online last night shows David's Sling air defenses intercepting missiles over Tel Aviv. Other Iran-backed groups have also intensified rocket attacks on Israel, with air defenses working overtime. Hezbollah is estimated to have around 150,000 missiles of varying ranges and quality, most of which are likely still intact, buried deep underground.
Irish Stand-off
According to the Irish Times, IDF troops have embedded themselves within the perimeters of a longstanding Irish peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, which has so far refused to move. An interview with a local who has worked with the Irish crew for 32 years, has picked up a thick Irish accent, sheds some light on the situation.
Some might say the IDF is using them as human shields.
IDF Ground Invasion Into Lebanon
Despite the talk of a ground invasion, progress on the frontlines has been minimal. Many IDF troops do not wish to enter Lebanon, fearing heavy casualties. On one side are mostly reservists, many of whom are TikTokers, facing off against battle-hardened militia fighters from Syria with jihadi ideologies. Let’s stop pretending and spare the lives of young Israeli reservists. We’ve seen this movie too many times.
There are also an estimated 40,000 mercenaries in Syria indebted to Hezbollah, as well as Afghan fighters. It's unrealistic to believe one side can bomb its way to victory without putting boots on the ground and suffering significant casualties. Similarly, the Israeli public was led to believe that the hostage situation in Gaza was a military operation combined with a game of hide-and-seek. Since the tragic execution of six Israeli hostages in Gaza, Hamas has redefined the limits under which the IDF can operate in the strip.
What’s the Endgame?
Let’s be honest instead of trying to fit square pegs into round holes based on official statements and policies. There are plenty of media outlets catering to the narrative of one side or another.
Israel
Israel’s top priority is to restore its regional deterrence—a status quo strategy. A sizable group of elites within the Israeli political establishment also harbors ambitions of reclaiming historical Greater Israel. Many Israelis believe the greatest obstacle to peace, or to achieving territorial expansion, is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which predates the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Arab nationalists were once the main supporters of the Palestinian cause, and Israel has had territorial disputes and wars with all of its neighbors, even when the Shah of Iran was its staunchest ally in the region.
Toppling Saddam and Gaddafi hasn't make Israel any safer. Let's get to the root of the problem rather than the “Class of Civilization” copout.
Iran
Iran claims its support for Palestinians aligns with its longstanding policy of opposing apartheid in South Africa, which resonates with an international audience, particularly younger people. However, the Iranian regime has built its identity around hostility toward the U.S. and Israel—the “big” and “little” Satans, respectively. Since its inception, Iran’s theocratic regime has adhered to a policy of exporting its revolution, somewhat akin to the U.S. policy of spreading democracy, with similarly mixed results. Iran’s steadfast support for the Palestinians allows it to exploit the wide gap between Arab public sentiment and national policies to destabilize governments in the region.
Policy Mistakes the Enemy Seizes Upon
A series of major strategic blunders in the Middle East—at a time when Iran seemed cornered after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars—gave Tehran an opportunity. This has led to the rise of governments more amenable to Iran and the formation of a militia network known as the “Axis of Resistance.” Iran-backed proxy groups, such as Hamas and the Houthis, are militarily aligned but less so ideologically.
Jordan
Iran's strategy toward Israel is often referred to as the “ring of fire,” emphasizing “strategic patience.” More recently, it’s been dubbed “boiling the frog.” U.S.- and Israel-friendly Jordan is considered the “last piece in the puzzle” to completely encircle Israel. Efforts by Iraqi militias to train and arm a resistance group consisting of over 10,000 Palestinians living in Jordan have been ramped up since Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus in early April.
Taken together, Israel’s strategic outlook is grim unless it can draw the U.S. directly into its war effort or resolve the Palestinian issue without ethnic cleansing—though the latter seems less likely than the former. So far, Israel has continued to add to its maximalist aimed which it has failed to achieve.
There are also murmurs of another Qatari-led effort to negotiate a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. We'll believe it when it happens.
