US Election | Polling Errors, Bias & Forecasting

Alessio Farhadi

Speevr Intelligence
June 30, 2024

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Speevr Intelligence

“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

— George Box

FiveThirtyEight Model
The latest FiveThirtyEight election forecasting model results are the only indicator post-Biden-Trump debate suggesting the former's chance of winning has marginally increased to 51%.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
The shape of the distribution keeps changing from ...

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