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“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

FiveThirtyEight Model

The latest FiveThirtyEight election forecasting model results are the only indicator post-Biden-Trump debate suggesting the former's chance of winning has marginally increased to 51%.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

The shape of the distribution keeps chang...

 

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US Election | Polling Errors, Bias & Forecasting

Are polls biased against Trump? Dusting off our 2020 ‘model’ to forecast 2024 results. Germany go through