MALAYSIA: An uncertain election … when it happens
The United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the second-largest party in the lower house, announced 28 March that it would be running in the next election independently of its main coalition partner, the Bersatu party of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The decision was made u… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
TURKEY: Sharp rise in infections puts tourism season at risk
The government, which relaxed Covid-19 related restrictions a month ago, has been forced to reimpose weekend curfews and reverse the normalization drive as infections continue to surge. The authorities reported 37,303 new cases on 30 March, breaking the country’s record of single… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: Signs of late Lasso rally may not be enough against Arauz
Andres Arauz remains the marginal favorite ahead of the 11 April presidential run-off vote though the conservative Guillermo Lasso appears to have gained ground. Voter fragmentation and indecision complicate the outlook, as do calls to spoil ballots. The vote pits Lasso… Become a member to read the rest of this article
INDIA/PAKISTAN: A thaw after a long winter?
Recent events suggest New Delhi and Islamabad are considering the normalization of relations.India and Pakistan face both geopolitical and economic compulsions.Full diplomatic relations could be followed by a long-stalled South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) s… Become a member to read the rest of this article
SOUTH AFRICA: Headline risk in ANC politics
Despite months of stalling, the battle to remove ruling party Secretary-General Ace Magashule has inched a step closer towards an outcome. The so-called ‘radical economic transformation (RET)’ faction will create maximum chaos in the interim. The situation will test Ram… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Seeds of the next financial crisis – EM dollar borrowing
Dollar bond issuance by non-US corporates has dominated forex borrowing since 2008. In many EMs, both leverage and currency mismatches have increased. Both increase the risk of corporate insolvencies. And they create new and growing threats to the balance sheets of local b… Become a member to read the rest of this article
EU/CHINA: CAI down but not out
Last week’s row between the EU and China has raised doubts about the future of the so-called Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). Since member states will likely green-light the agreement, the European Parliament remains the key veto player in the ratification proc… Become a member to read the rest of this article
BRAZIL: Feel-good yes-men reshuffle overshadowed by Big Center move
President Jair Bolsonaro reshuffled six ministers in his government but not much should change in terms of policy. The Big Center was the main winner of the reshuffle. The pandemic will pose the biggest challenge to the new construct. The ministerial reshuffle on 29 … Become a member to read the rest of this […]