ASIA: China’s new Coast Guard Law is not an escalation of maritime disputes
China’s new Coast Guard Law is part of a long-term administrative and legal reform effort and does not signal near-term escalation of territorial and maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. However, Tokyo and some Southeast Asian capitals view the new law wit… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
ARGENTINA: Electoral considerations outranking speedy IMF resolution
It looks increasingly as if the government will try to push talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) beyond October’s partial mid-term legislative elections. President Alberto Fernandez’s combative 1 March speech to mark the opening of the new congressional session appear… Become a member to read the rest of this article
EU: Divisions over vaccination strategy continue to grow
Several governments are looking beyond the EU procurement scheme amid continued discontent with the bloc’s overall vaccination strategy. Countries with a high capacity for vaccine deployment and/or greater EU skepticism might be more likely to follow unilateral approache… Become a member to read the rest of this article
SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s tenure
The 24 February budget has reinforced the importance of keeping Finance Minister Tito Mboweni in his post, but also speculation about his tenure. President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to reshuffle his cabinet soon owning to vacancies. However, Mboweni may remain in office … Become a member to read the rest of this article
NORTH KOREA: Pyongyang could expand cyber attacks as economic crisis continues
The US Department of Justice (DOJ) announced in February that it was indicting three members of North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), a clandestine agency that manages cyber warfare activities, for attempts to steal more than USD 1.3bn in cash and cryptocurrency fro… Become a member to read the rest of this article
FRANCE: The Le Pen risk – Part I: Electoral politics
With around a year to go to the 2022 presidential election, concerns are rising that Marine Le Pen might have a good shot at taking power. This piece provides a (very early) assessment of Le Pen’s electoral chances and other risks associated with next year’s vote. Ne… Become a member to read the rest […]
MENA: Saudi-US relations under the spotlight
The US intelligence community assessment on the Khashoggi assassination is not as damaging as feared. Biden’s strategy is not to downgrade the relationship, but instead to make it conditions-based. Congressional pressure is likely to grow to punish those involved pub… Become a member to read the rest of this article
MYANMAR: Political crossroads ahead, with the risk of more violence
The demonstrations are frustrating the junta’s attempts to gain legitimacy. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions, which limits the possibility of a political compromise anytime soon. In several scenarios, the economic fallout would be severe. The level… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Focus – A longer term perspective on China’s economy
China has racked up extraordinary economic achievements over the past 40 years In so doing it is returning to its historical position in the global ‘pecking order’ In the process China has become surprisingly unequal for a ‘socialist’ country It is becoming more assertive,… Become a member to read the rest of this article