Day: February 4, 2021

Emerging Markets

RUSSIA: Navalny’s sidelining weakens both opposition and Putin

The sentencing of the Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny leaves the country’s opposition without its most effective leader. While the protest momentum will likely fade amid limited prospects to achieve political change and repressive measures used by authorities, it could reemerge on a bigger scale after the State Duma election in September.… Read the rest


CHINA: Digital currency is a hedge against dollar supremacy

  • Among global central banks, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been among the most aggressive in research and development of a blockchain-based digital currency, including at least 130 pending patent applications.
  • Beijing appears to have diverse motivations, including technological leadership, better visibility into payment transactions, and a hedge against risks from dependence on the US dollar.
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KOREAN PENINSULA: North Korea’s domestic woes could mean opportunity for Biden

  • North Korea’s economy continues to struggle due to border closures even as the country remains highly vulnerable to Covid-19.
  • Domestic conditions could mean Pyongyang refrains from missile or nuclear tests in the near term, creating an opportunity for the new US administration to use offers of humanitarian relief to restart stalled talks – although North Korea appears uninterested in new negotiations.
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ASIA: Weekly politics update

Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.

US/CHINA: China’s top diplomat ruffles feathers with speech on US-China relations

The Communist Party’s top foreign policy official, Politburo member Yang Jiechi, gave a speech to the National Committee on US-China relations on 1 February outlining Beijing’s hopes for an improvement in bilateral relations.Read the rest


EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.

EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching 1


– The stabilization of daily cases at around 25,000 makes it even less likely that the central government will adopt any new nationwide restrictions.… Read the rest

MYANMAR: A decade comes undone

  • The possibility of anti-coup protests and a harsh security reaction are the immediate near-term risks.
  • The US government has threatened sanctions but is likely to find that formulating an effective response and coordinating with other governments to generate immediate pressure on the generals will take time and may even be difficult.
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