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My baseline view is that markets are much too optimistic about the recovery of the US and world economies. Of course, there is a reason for optimism; the infection trajectory in the US is looking better, as shown in Figure 1 on the left below. According to most models, the peak i...

 

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SOM Macro Strategies was founded by former Goldman Sachs strategist Alan Brazil after leaving the firm to independently publish his State Of the Market (SOM) reports. The SOM reports reflect the results of fundamental economic analysis of macro themes that are likely to reprice across asset types and markets. This framework helps to identify strategies that provide investors with asymmetric returns with high expected Sharpe ratios.
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It Will Be A U-Shaped Economic Recovery Not A V-Shaped One

My baseline view is that markets are much too optimistic about the recovery of the US and world economies. Of course, there is a