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My baseline view is that markets are much too optimistic about the recovery of the US and world economies. Of course, there is a reason for optimism; the infection trajectory in the US is looking better, as shown in Figure 1 on the left below. According to most models, the peak ...

 

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It Will Be A U-Shaped Economic Recovery Not A V-Shaped One

My baseline view is that markets are much too optimistic about the recovery of the US and world economies. Of course, there is a