JAPAN: With emergency declaration, Abe admits that light-touch approach failed
● Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will declare a state of emergency on Tuesday, 7 April, enabling the governors of Tokyo, Osaka, and five other prefectures to request restrictions on individual and business activity to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. ● Recognizing the growing impact … Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
NIGERIA: Calling 911
● The government has requested a cumulative USD 6.9bn from multilateral institutions. ● While the government is keen to secure funding without committing to an IMF program, the Fund will likely want to see an up-front reform commitment. ● Pointing to the dire state of publi… Become a member to read the rest of […]
ARGENTINA: Buying time on foreign law debt as economic storm clouds darken
The government last night, 6 April, confirmed that it would postpone payments on around USD 8.4bn in USD-denominated debt issued under local law. The move is designed to gain space to keep on making foreign currency payments issued under non-Argentine law and avoid a wider defaul… Become a member to read the rest of […]
EUROPE: The politics of coronavirus – Daily update
Below is the latest edition of our daily Europe coronavirus update. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Austria The government is starting to prepare for a gradual exit from the current lockdown. In prac… Become a member to read the […]
LATAM PULSE
This week, existing quarantines in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia will remain in place heading into the Easter weekend – what happens from next week will be critical to watch as some governments weigh up the risk of social strife and the economic effects of a “lockdown shock” sho… Become a member to read the rest of this article
GERMANY: Managing Covid-19 (and a looming European crisis)
● Despite the challenges of the country’s decentralized decision-making system, authorities have managed to deal relatively well with the Covid-19 crisis so far. ● But strong public support for the government’s consensual crisis management should not be misread as pr… Become a member to read the rest of this article
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
In Argentina, the sovereign heads into technical default. Nigeria has demanded financial assistance from international institutions. Brazil’s president is politically isolated. Eurozone members remain unlikely to make progress towards debt mutualization. South Africa’s currency f… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CEE: Could Covid-19 embolden populists and Eurosceptics?
● Covid-19 has brought greater political stability to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) but also raised rule of law concerns. ● Political leaders in countries like Hungary, Serbia, or Poland could take advantage of the situation to strengthen their grip on power. ● In the lo… Become a member to read the rest of […]
CHINA: Policymakers are unwilling to launch aggressive economic stimulus
● In contrast to the 2008 financial crisis, China’s stimulus response has been less forceful than in the US and Europe. ● Initial March data show that the return to normal economic activity has been slow, while secondary outbreaks may require selected regions to re-impose lock… Become a member to read the rest of […]