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Political risk
Teneo is a global political risk advisory service providing timely, market-relevant and forward-looking counsel. We help business and finance leaders understand political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets – from a company’s local footprint to its global supply chain, and a country’s fiscal policy to its economic outlook. We identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios. In this way, Teneo helps clients to incorporate political futures into their business and investment strategies.
Rigorous research and analysis form the basis of our work. Our highly-skilled team of analysts are experienced political scientists with advanced degrees in political economy, international relations and neighboring disciplines. Having lived and worked in the regions they cover, our experts speak the relevant languages, continue to travel regularly and maintain a dense network of contacts on the ground.
Teneo works with the C-Suite of the world’s largest corporates and financial institutions. We provide strategic counsel across their full range of key business and investment objectives.
Rigorous research and analysis form the basis of our work. Our highly-skilled team of analysts are experienced political scientists with advanced degrees in political economy, international relations and neighboring disciplines. Having lived and worked in the regions they cover, our experts speak the relevant languages, continue to travel regularly and maintain a dense network of contacts on the ground.
Teneo works with the C-Suite of the world’s largest corporates and financial institutions. We provide strategic counsel across their full range of key business and investment objectives.
Teneo analysts and experts
- All
- Aditi Phadnis
- Andrius Tursa
- Anne Frühauf
- Antonio Barroso
- Bob Herrera-Lim
- Carsten Nickel
- Gabriel Wildau
- Jon B. Alterman
- Luis Cornago
- Malte Liewerscheidt
- Mario Marconini
- Nicholas Watson
- Tobias Harris
- Victor Cha
- Wolfango Piccoli
Recent publications by Teneo
LATAM PULSE
November 23, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Press play to listen This week, the challenge facing Peru’s new caretaker president is to build congressional support for his new cabinet, though the signs that he can appear positive. Two crucial spending rules in Brazil could come up for congressional votes. Chile’s second pension withdrawal faces a crucial few days ahead. In Colombia, the
JAPAN: Suga looks vulnerable after changing course on subsidies
November 23, 2020
( 3 mins read ) Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced after a meeting of his government’s Covid-19 response headquarters on Saturday, 21 November that, as expected, his government would suspend or scale back the “Go To” programs for subsidizing domestic travel and dining out. However advisable, Suga’s u-turn exposes him to stronger political attacks than he
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
November 23, 2020
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen G20 leaders discussed how to distribute Covid-19 vaccines around the world. An EU-UK trade deal might finally be agreed in the coming days. Another major anti-government protest is expected in Thailand. The Tigray conflict continues in Ethiopia. In Germany, more fiscal support might be on the way. Meanwhile, travel and eating out subsidies
ASIA: Weekly politics update
November 20, 2020
( 8 mins read ) Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA/AUSTRALIA: Beijing’s list of grievances shows both sides are dug in China’s Foreign Ministry shared a list of 14
US/CHINA: Trump’s lame duck period brings new risks for bilateral relations
November 20, 2020
( 5 mins read ) The US-China relationship faces downside risk over the next two months, given that the Trump administration will not have to manage the consequences of any new coercive policies. Possible last-minute actions include new tariffs, export controls, financial and non-financial sanctions, immigration restrictions, and high-profile prosecutions. The Biden administration will face
ETHIOPIA: Endgame unclear
November 20, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s repeated assurances that the military campaign in Tigray will end soon, little indicates that an end to hostilities is imminent. The two-week-old conflict between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is spilling across internal regional boundaries and Ethiopia’s external frontiers. A worst-case
EU/US: New hopes, but also new political realities
November 19, 2020
( 6 mins read ) While a Biden presidency will likely entail an end to new trade hostilities, any further progress on trade will be constrained by the new political realities on both sides of the Atlantic. The EU’s more assertive approach towards Big Tech could become a source of transatlantic frictions. Both sides face
EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching
November 19, 2020
( 5 mins read ) This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France The seven-day rolling average of cases has dropped to 28,000 (from
MACRO: What to watch in 2021
November 19, 2020
( < 1 min read ) Our global outlook includes the views of our political risk team on the main issues to watch in each region in 2021. As the medium-term response and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic take shape next year, politics will continue to be crucial. Our global platform of analysts stands ready,
THAILAND: Headed for escalation
November 19, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Parliament is moving forward with constitutional reform, but without changes to the monarchy. The political avenue for compromise has narrowed. Frustrations on both sides increase the risk of conflict in the streets. Political tensions have increased in the past few days and could manifest in more confrontations and possibly more
JAPAN: Suga balances public health and economy as third wave swells
November 18, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Japan is facing a third wave of Covid-19 as cases have reached new highs nationwide and in major population centers. Fearful of the economic costs, the Suga administration is tinkering with existing regulations but is trying to avoid the wholesale withdrawal of travel and dining subsidies or another round of
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
November 18, 2020
( 6 mins read ) Bulgaria will continue blocking North Macedonia’s EU accession talks due to nationalist pressures in the governing coalition. The ruling Fidesz party in Hungary proposed a tweak in parliamentary election rules, which could complicate the opposition parties’ performance in the 2022 general vote. The pandemic and multiple political crises are testing the unity of the
MEXICO: Notes on a scandal
November 18, 2020
( 3 mins read ) A US federal judge earlier today, 18 November, ceded to a Department of Justice (DoJ) request to drop drug trafficking and money laundering charges against former defense minister Salvador Cienfuegos (2012-2018), who was arrested in Los Angeles on 15 October. On 17 November, when the request was made public, court
CHILE: Testing defenses against rising populist pressures
November 18, 2020
( 3 mins read ) The Senate’s constitutional commission could have the second initiative to allow people to dip into their retirement savings ready to go to a plenary Senate vote by the end of today, 18 November; the first initiative passed in July. This bill has already passed the lower house with an overwhelming
INDONESIA: The return of a controversial Islamic cleric could change politics
November 18, 2020
( 5 mins read ) The firebrand cleric Rizieq Shihab could fill the political vacuum in the opposition. Often masking his messages in sanctimonious moralism, Shihab is adept at exploiting social and religious tensions to drive political polarization. Calculations around the 2024 presidential elections could change if his organization, FPI, succeeds in galvanizing opposition to
