Teneo
Menu
Political risk
Teneo is a global political risk advisory service providing timely, market-relevant and forward-looking counsel. We help business and finance leaders understand political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets – from a company’s local footprint to its global supply chain, and a country’s fiscal policy to its economic outlook. We identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios. In this way, Teneo helps clients to incorporate political futures into their business and investment strategies.
Rigorous research and analysis form the basis of our work. Our highly-skilled team of analysts are experienced political scientists with advanced degrees in political economy, international relations and neighboring disciplines. Having lived and worked in the regions they cover, our experts speak the relevant languages, continue to travel regularly and maintain a dense network of contacts on the ground.
Teneo works with the C-Suite of the world’s largest corporates and financial institutions. We provide strategic counsel across their full range of key business and investment objectives.
Rigorous research and analysis form the basis of our work. Our highly-skilled team of analysts are experienced political scientists with advanced degrees in political economy, international relations and neighboring disciplines. Having lived and worked in the regions they cover, our experts speak the relevant languages, continue to travel regularly and maintain a dense network of contacts on the ground.
Teneo works with the C-Suite of the world’s largest corporates and financial institutions. We provide strategic counsel across their full range of key business and investment objectives.
Teneo analysts and experts
- All
- Aditi Phadnis
- Andrius Tursa
- Anne Frühauf
- Antonio Barroso
- Bob Herrera-Lim
- Carsten Nickel
- Gabriel Wildau
- Jon B. Alterman
- Luis Cornago
- Malte Liewerscheidt
- Mario Marconini
- Nicholas Watson
- Tobias Harris
- Victor Cha
- Wolfango Piccoli
Recent publications by Teneo
ARGENTINA: Concerns over business climate to persist
September 18, 2020
( 3 mins read ) The announcement this week by the Chilean department store chain Falabella that it intends to withdraw from Argentina highlights a series of issues that foreign companies face in the local market. The Covid-19 crisis is clearly a contributing factor in Falabella and other companies’ moves to reduce their local footprint
BRAZIL: Outsourcing of cash transfer program to Congress should work
September 18, 2020
( 3 mins read ) A new and improved cash transfer program continues to be a top priority of the Jair Bolsonaro administration despite bouts of stridency by the president when facing difficulties to find ways to pay for it. Reacting to an economy ministry special secretary who on 15 September proposed freezing pension benefits
CHINA: The latest evidence on supply-chain migration
September 18, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Evidence of large-scale supply chain migration away from China remains scarce. Covid-19 appears to have slowed or even reversed the decline of China’s global export market share low-margin consumer goods, while consolidating market-share gains in capital goods. But in the medium term, rising costs, geopolitical tensions, and industrial policies from
TURKEY: It is about the pandemic not the East Med dispute
September 17, 2020
( 4 mins read ) The trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic constitutes a much more tangible and immediate risk for Turkey’s economy than the Greek-Turkish dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean. The withdrawal of the Turkish seismic research vessel from the contested waters will allow Ankara to dodge possible EU sanctions. But a solution to the
LITHUANIA: Tight electoral battle will bring few policy changes
September 17, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Nearly three weeks ahead of the first round of the general election, the ruling Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS) and the opposition Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) stand neck to neck in the opinion polls. This parity gives the incumbent LVZS greater chance of leading
PERU: No let-up to political tussles even if Vizcarra survives impeachment
September 17, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Press play to listen The next 48 hours will mark an especially fraught moment in the steadily rising confrontation between the executive and legislative branches. While the threat of impeachment against President Martin Vizcarra is real, the most likely scenario is that he pulls through this crisis moment. Even if he
NIGERIA: Edo state election informs race for Buhari’s succession
September 17, 2020
( 3 mins read ) The outcome of the 19 September gubernatorial election in the southern Edo state will have major implications for the balance of power within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). In fact, if the APC fails to win in Edo state, this could put a premature end to south-western powerbroker Bola
EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching
September 17, 2020
( 6 mins read ) In this updated weekly piece, we provide snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Italy The shaky ruling coalition faces an important political test
SOUTH AFRICA: Lockdown Level 1 loading
September 16, 2020
( 4 mins read ) This evening, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that South Africa’s pandemic lockdown would be relaxed to “Level 1” from 20 September, fully reopening the economy as well as international borders for the first time since March. With South Africa facing a socio-economic and fiscal crisis of epic proportions, Ramaphosa signaled a
JAPAN: Suga’s cabinet offers bland continuity but honeymoon is still likely
September 16, 2020
( 6 mins read ) Yoshihide Suga was officially selected as Japan’s prime minister by the Diet on Wednesday, 16 September. Suga’s cabinet retains ten members from its predecessor, but the new members contain few politicians who will raise excitement about the government. The new government will still enjoy healthy approval ratings, which could tempt
THAILAND: Weekend protest is a numbers game, with a bit of monarchy thrown in
September 16, 2020
( 4 mins read ) The size of this weekend’s demonstration will strongly shape near-term narratives of the movement’s momentum. It could also affect how protesters approach the issue of reforms in Thailand’s monarchy. Thaksin’s Red Shirts could stay out of the spotlight, which helps limit the potential for a public confrontation. Two days of
ITALY: A 3-3 draw or a thumping victory for the center-right?
September 16, 2020
( 5 mins read ) The wobbly ruling coalition led by the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) faces an important political test this weekend as seven of Italy’s 20 regions will go to the polls. As the center-right bloc seems to have three regions (Veneto, Liguria and Marche) in the bag
US/CHINA: Ban on selected Xinjiang exports may be just the beginning
September 16, 2020
( 4 mins read ) The Trump administration announced narrowly-targeted restrictions on US imports from Xinjiang, with broader measures likely in the coming weeks. The controversy surrounding the Disney film Mulan has drawn public attention to alleged human rights abuses in the territory. Multinational companies should scrutinize their supply chains for exposure to Xinjiang, including
COTE D’IVOIRE: Bedie remains Ouattara’s main challenger
September 16, 2020
( 3 mins read ) As expected, the constitutional council this week whittled down the list of candidates for the 31 October presidential election, from 44 to just four. In doing so, the council unsurprisingly confirmed President Alassane Ouattara’s eligibility to run for a third term, while invalidating the candidacies of Laurent Gbagbo and Guillaume
MOZAMBIQUE: Cabo Delgado conflict edging closer to LNG hub
September 16, 2020
( 5 mins read ) Arabic Press play to listen Recent insurgent attacks have fueled fears that the conflict may encircle Palma – and by extension, the LNG hub under development on the adjacent Afungi peninsula. More frequent and prolonged attacks reflect the insurgents’ improved manpower, armament, and financing, while the poorly trained security forces
