Political risk
Teneo is a global political risk advisory service providing timely, market-relevant and forward-looking counsel. We help business and finance leaders understand political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets – from a company’s local footprint to its global supply chain, and a country’s fiscal policy to its economic outlook. We identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios. In this way, Teneo helps clients to incorporate political futures into their business and investment strategies.

Rigorous research and analysis form the basis of our work. Our highly-skilled team of analysts are experienced political scientists with advanced degrees in political economy, international relations and neighboring disciplines. Having lived and worked in the regions they cover, our experts speak the relevant languages, continue to travel regularly and maintain a dense network of contacts on the ground.

Teneo works with the C-Suite of the world’s largest corporates and financial institutions. We provide strategic counsel across their full range of key business and investment objectives.

Teneo analysts and experts

  • All
  • Aditi Phadnis
  • Andrius Tursa
  • Anne Frühauf
  • Antonio Barroso
  • Bob Herrera-Lim
  • Carsten Nickel
  • Gabriel Wildau
  • Jon B. Alterman
  • Luis Cornago
  • Malte Liewerscheidt
  • Mario Marconini
  • Nicholas Watson
  • Tobias Harris
  • Victor Cha
  • Wolfango Piccoli

Recent publications by Teneo

LATAM PULSE

( 5 mins read ) Press play to listen This week, the challenge facing Peru’s new caretaker president is to build congressional support for his new cabinet, though the signs that he can appear positive. Two crucial spending rules in Brazil could come up for congressional votes. Chile’s second pension withdrawal faces a crucial few days ahead. In Colombia, the

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JAPAN: Suga looks vulnerable after changing course on subsidies

( 3 mins read ) Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced after a meeting of his government’s Covid-19 response headquarters on Saturday, 21 November that, as expected, his government would suspend or scale back the “Go To” programs for subsidizing domestic travel and dining out. However advisable, Suga’s u-turn exposes him to stronger political attacks than he

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WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen G20 leaders discussed how to distribute Covid-19 vaccines around the world. An EU-UK trade deal might finally be agreed in the coming days. Another major anti-government protest is expected in Thailand. The Tigray conflict continues in Ethiopia. In Germany, more fiscal support might be on the way. Meanwhile, travel and eating out subsidies

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ASIA: Weekly politics update

( 8 mins read ) Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA/AUSTRALIA: Beijing’s list of grievances shows both sides are dug in China’s Foreign Ministry shared a list of 14

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US/CHINA: Trump’s lame duck period brings new risks for bilateral relations

( 5 mins read ) The US-China relationship faces downside risk over the next two months, given that the Trump administration will not have to manage the consequences of any new coercive policies. Possible last-minute actions include new tariffs, export controls, financial and non-financial sanctions, immigration restrictions, and high-profile prosecutions. The Biden administration will face

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ETHIOPIA: Endgame unclear

( 5 mins read ) Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s repeated assurances that the military campaign in Tigray will end soon, little indicates that an end to hostilities is imminent. The two-week-old conflict between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is spilling across internal regional boundaries and Ethiopia’s external frontiers. A worst-case

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EU/US: New hopes, but also new political realities

( 6 mins read ) While a Biden presidency will likely entail an end to new trade hostilities, any further progress on trade will be constrained by the new political realities on both sides of the Atlantic. The EU’s more assertive approach towards Big Tech could become a source of transatlantic frictions. Both sides face

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EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

( 5 mins read ) This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France The seven-day rolling average of cases has dropped to 28,000 (from

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MACRO: What to watch in 2021

( < 1 min read ) Our global outlook includes the views of our political risk team on the main issues to watch in each region in 2021. As the medium-term response and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic take shape next year, politics will continue to be crucial. Our global platform of analysts stands ready,

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THAILAND: Headed for escalation

( 4 mins read ) Parliament is moving forward with constitutional reform, but without changes to the monarchy. The political avenue for compromise has narrowed. Frustrations on both sides increase the risk of conflict in the streets. Political tensions have increased in the past few days and could manifest in more confrontations and possibly more

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JAPAN: Suga balances public health and economy as third wave swells

( 5 mins read ) Japan is facing a third wave of Covid-19 as cases have reached new highs nationwide and in major population centers. Fearful of the economic costs, the Suga administration is tinkering with existing regulations but is trying to avoid the wholesale withdrawal of travel and dining subsidies or another round of

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EUROPE: CEE PULSE

( 6 mins read ) Bulgaria will continue blocking North Macedonia’s EU accession talks due to nationalist pressures in the governing coalition. The ruling Fidesz party in Hungary proposed a tweak in parliamentary election rules, which could complicate the opposition parties’ performance in the 2022 general vote. The pandemic and multiple political crises are testing the unity of the

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MEXICO: Notes on a scandal

( 3 mins read ) A US federal judge earlier today, 18 November, ceded to a Department of Justice (DoJ) request to drop drug trafficking and money laundering charges against former defense minister Salvador Cienfuegos (2012-2018), who was arrested in Los Angeles on 15 October. On 17 November, when the request was made public, court

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CHILE: Testing defenses against rising populist pressures

( 3 mins read ) The Senate’s constitutional commission could have the second initiative to allow people to dip into their retirement savings ready to go to a plenary Senate vote by the end of today, 18 November; the first initiative passed in July. This bill has already passed the lower house with an overwhelming

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INDONESIA: The return of a controversial Islamic cleric could change politics

( 5 mins read ) The firebrand cleric Rizieq Shihab could fill the political vacuum in the opposition. Often masking his messages in sanctimonious moralism, Shihab is adept at exploiting social and religious tensions to drive political polarization. Calculations around the 2024 presidential elections could change if his organization, FPI, succeeds in galvanizing opposition to

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Media Features

Nicholas Watson on Argentina Elections
June 30, 2019

Wolf Piccoli on Turkey Political Deadlock
April 9, 2019

Carsten Nickel, German Elections
Sep 18, 2017

UK Snap Elections from Brussels
April 19, 2017

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Our sponsorship consultants @NiallLeyden and Ross Murphy looked at what sporting organisations are doing to bring fans closer to the game with matches behind closed doors. https://www.the42.ie/sport-behind-closed-doors-5166228-Aug2020/?utm_source=shortlink

#sportsmarketing #sponsorship

The winner of the Best Sponsorship Campaign with a PR Budget over €50K is @TeneoIreland and @VodafoneIreland with Vodafone and @IrishRugby – Everyone In. #PRAwards20

Full time in the #DublinDerby congratulations Keith Ward and @bfcdublin - commiserations to Aaron and @ShamrockRovers. Special thanks to our commentator @DaveMcIntyreIRL, @Wilson_Cork and everyone who tuned in and donated to @PietaHouse!

The grass is cut and pitch is lined for the virtual #DublinDerby with Keith Ward of @bfcdublin taking on Aaron McEneff of @ShamrockRovers. Tune into http://Balls.ie to watch the stream at 8pm with @DaveMcIntyreIRL on the mic in aid of @PietaHouse

The #DublinDerby is on. @bfcdublin face @shamrockrovers in a FIFA20 showdown that will surely have fans on the edge of their… couches! Produced by Teneo and streamed live at @ballsdotie in support of @pietahouse

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⏰ 7pm

Tune in for #TogetherAtHome tonight with @GlblCtzn to support @WHO. Who are you looking forward to seeing?

Watch back the world’s biggest virtual concert, join @glblctzn and some of the biggest names in entertainment including @ladygaga and @lizzo at 7pm tonight on @RTE2. Enjoy the show and raise funds for @WHO, #TogetherAtHome.

The world’s biggest virtual concert is happening here #TogetherAtHome and broadcast tomorrow on @RTE2 @GlblCtzn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87-ZFjLfBAQ

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