Recent publications by EconViews
( 2 mins read ) • The Government was successful in lowering the FX spread from a peak of nearly 150% in mid-October to 85% by early November. To do this, it relied on selling dollar bonds at 16-17% yields as well as auctioning dollar-linked instruments to provide devaluation coverage. The government also made a
( 4 mins read ) The Government panicked when the dollar peaked at ARS 195, and it took a small but noticeable turn toward orthodoxy in the last 3 weeks, as we have reported in previous editions. From a quality point of view, the high profile land squattings have ceased, it embraced the cause of
( 17 mins read ) Editorial: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan The IMF mission that will begin negotiations for a program with Argentina is arriving today. This is the next milestone in the economic agenda. The Government was not able to take advantage of the good sovereign debt restructuring to stabilize the economy. This
( < 1 min read ) Related Reports BRAZIL: Guedes gets it wrong in Davos, Bolsonaro gets it right in Brasilia
( 14 mins read ) Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero and impose limits on the Central Bank’s financing of the Treasury,
( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan The parallel dollar hitting 167 pesos set off all the alarms once again. The rumor mill prior to a long weekend anticipated new measures. They have not happened so far. The more it takes to find a consistent economic
( 15 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial The Central Bank has changed the game. For the first time in a long time, it decided to devalue faster and timidly change the interest rate structure. It left the monetary policy rate at 38% but raised the reverse repo rate from 19 to 24%.
( 24 mins read ) Press play to listen The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina’s social scheme very clearly. Unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good news. Instead of looking at unemployment, we
( 12 mins read ) The Super Cepo outshined the Budget In another country this weekly editorial would inevitably be about the Budget. The Bill was presented last week. It has a realistic activity expectation, a too-high deficit, and a stubbornly low inflation that underestimates revenues. This in turn gives us some hope that the
( 9 mins read ) No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending, but nobody really believes Argentina plans on defaulting to the Fund,
( 18 mins read ) Press play to listen With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance rate, which means over 99% of the
( 18 mins read ) In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.
( 18 mins read ) The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 24, Argentina will get the special majorities to trigger the collective action clauses