Recent publications by EconViews
( 9 mins read ) No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending, but nobody really believes Argentina plans on defaulting to the Fund,
( 18 mins read ) Press play to listen With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance rate, which means over 99% of the
( 18 mins read ) In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.
( 18 mins read ) The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 24, Argentina will get the special majorities to trigger the collective action clauses
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen The Spread Hops Back on Stage By the end of last week, the dollar exchange rate in its MEP and Blue Chip Swap versions surpassed the 120-peso barrier again and closed with a spread over 70% against the official rate. This week, the market opened on
( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Local Debt Restructuring Underway, Foreign Debt Still Gridlocked Last Friday the executive submitted the bill to restructure the dollar debt under local law. This is a step in the right direction because it also fulfills the promise of matching the conditions of the proposal made
( 16 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Is the Fourth Time the Charm? Argentina submitted its fourth sovereign debt restructuring proposal under foreign law. This time it smells like a goal, but the ball still has to hit the net. Not only has it improved the financial terms, but it has also
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: The Financial Health of the Provinces Argentina’s provinces finished 2019 with a primary fiscal surplus for the second year in a row. But, despite this improvement in fiscal behavior, three provinces have already defaulted this year and the fate of the rest seems to be
( 29 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Emission, the Great Danger for the Second Semester Argentina is heading towards a primary deficit which, being conservative, will reach 5.5% of GDP but could be higher, depending on factors such as assistance to the private sector through relief programs for the pandemic effect. It
( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Unnecessary Noise The announcement that Vicentín was being expropriated made a lot of unnecessary noise in the economy. This could complicate both the short-term and medium-term outlook, the former because it could affect the debt restructuring and the latter due to the post-pandemic situation. In
( 37 mins read ) Press play to listen Recent Developments COVID-19: 85% of the country has normalized activities with social distancing recommendations (with the exception of tourism, massive events and inter-jurisdictional transport, which are not allowed). In the case of the Metropolitan Area, the pace of contagion is accelerating, and strict controls subsist, but
( 19 mins read ) In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.
( 19 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: What Does a Good Deal on Public Debt Entail? We must call a spade a spade: we are in default. Neither technical nor anecdotal, simply in default. It could be an anecdote if there is an agreement with creditors in the next few weeks. This
( 5 mins read ) Press play to listen Estimados clientes y amigos, Compartimos con ustedes el artículo del Dr. Kiguel de hoy en El Cronista. Esperamos que les sea de utilidad. Saludos cordiales, Solucionar el default no implica volver a crecer La economía argentina se encuentra ante un desafío ciclópeo. En medio de la pandemia enfrenta el