Argentina and Latam economic research
Econviews was founded by argentine star economist Miguel Kiguel, and Associates provide periodic economic analysis on Argentina. Dr. Kiguel has held several senior official roles including Undersecretary of Finance, Chief Advisor to the Minister of the Economy of Argentina, Deputy General Manager for Economics and Finance at the Central Bank of Argentina, Principal Economist at the World Bank, and IIE Associate in Washington DC.

EconViews analysts and experts

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  • Andrés Borenstein
  • Isaías Marini
  • Lorena Giorgio
  • Mariela Díaz Romero
  • Miguel A. Kiguel
  • Rafael Aguilar

Recent publications by EconViews

Argentina: High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

( 2 mins read ) • The Government was successful in lowering the FX spread from a peak of nearly 150% in mid-October to 85% by early November. To do this, it relied on selling dollar bonds at 16-17% yields as well as auctioning dollar-linked instruments to provide devaluation coverage. The government also made a

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ARGENTINA: A Peculiar Orthodox Approach

( 4 mins read ) The Government panicked when the dollar peaked at ARS 195, and it took a small but noticeable turn toward orthodoxy in the last 3 weeks, as we have reported in previous editions. From a quality point of view, the high profile land squattings have ceased, it embraced the cause of

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Argentina: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan

( 17 mins read ) Editorial: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan The IMF mission that will begin negotiations for a program with Argentina is arriving today. This is the next milestone in the economic agenda. The Government was not able to take advantage of the good sovereign debt restructuring to stabilize the economy. This

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( < 1 min read ) Related Reports Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance Argentina: Econviews Monthly Report ARGENTINA: THE WEEK AT A GLANCE

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ARGENTINA: The Government Runs Behind the Exchange Crisis

( 14 mins read ) Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero and impose limits on the Central Bank’s financing of the Treasury,

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Argentina: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan The parallel dollar hitting 167 pesos set off all the alarms once again. The rumor mill prior to a long weekend anticipated new measures. They have not happened so far. The more it takes to find a consistent economic

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Argentina: Too Little, Too Late

( 15 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial The Central Bank has changed the game. For the first time in a long time, it decided to devalue faster and timidly change the interest rate structure. It left the monetary policy rate at 38% but raised the reverse repo rate from 19 to 24%.

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 24 mins read ) Press play to listen The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina’s social scheme very clearly. Unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good news. Instead of looking at unemployment, we

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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

( 12 mins read ) The Super Cepo outshined the Budget In another country this weekly editorial would inevitably be about the Budget. The Bill was presented last week. It has a realistic activity expectation, a too-high deficit, and a stubbornly low inflation that underestimates revenues. This in turn gives us some hope that the

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 9 mins read ) No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending, but nobody really believes Argentina plans on defaulting to the Fund,

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 18 mins read ) Press play to listen With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance rate, which means over 99% of the

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 18 mins read ) In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 18 mins read ) The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 24, Argentina will get the special majorities to trigger the collective action clauses

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Follow @econviews on Twitter

"Si bien las cotizaciones de los dólares financieros se moderaron un poco por la intervención del @BancoCentral_AR vendiendo bonos, la evolución del blue deja en claro que ya no hay ´pax cambiaria´." @lore_giorgio

https://www.iprofesional.com/finanzas/327764-dolar-versus-plazo-fijo-cual-es-la-mejor-inversion

[PRECIOS]

🔶Los precios mayoristas se incrementaron 4.7% en octubre, por encima del IPC (3.8%)

🔷El costo de la construcción también aceleró, creciendo 3.7%

🔶Los materiales se dispararon: 7.8%

🔷El costo de la mano de obra avanzó apenas 0.1%,

@kiguel

"La carta de los senadores es un mensaje escrito para el público local. 'Acá hay un ajuste, pero nosotros no lo queremos. Esto es lo que pide el Fondo', dicen en el Gobierno." @kiguel (1/2)
https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/negociacion-fmi-carta-critica-senadores-no-ayuda-nid2511839

#𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦í𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 - #𝐀𝐜𝐮𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐨 #𝐅𝐌𝐈
Un panel imperdible en la 41º Convención Anual del #IAEF
@kiguel Director Ejecutivo @econviews
@martintetaz Economista
Modera @silviastang

¡Inscribite! https://bit.ly/35zmcdd
#ConvencionIAEF

🧑‍🏭[INDUSTRIA]

🔶El uso de capacidad instalada en la industria alcanzó en septiembre el 60.4%, creciendo por quinto mes consecutivo

🔶De esta forma, se ubicó 1.4 p.p. por encima del nivel de febrero y 3.1 p.p. por encima del registro de septiembre de 2019

@kiguel

"Le tengo miedo a la discusión cambiaria con el @FMInoticias, que pidan una devaluación." @kiguel http://www.laprensa.com.ar/495690-Le-tengo-miedo-a-la-discusion-cambiaria-con-el-Fondo-que-pidan-una-devaluacion.note.aspx

#Economía | #Dólar: Gobierno pudo bajar la brecha, pero ¿se atenuaron las expectativas de devaluación?

📌¿Cuáles son las expectativas para los próximos meses?
📌Opinan @guido_lorenzo, @JuanPaolicchi y @lore_giorgio

✍️@jpmarino79

https://www.dataclave.com.ar/economia/dolar--gobierno-pudo-bajar-la-brecha--pero--se-atenuaron-las-expectativas-de-devaluacion-_a5fb1baa62b4df039fc3aeef8

Episodio 29 del Podcast "La Economía en 3 minutos". Esta semana vamos con "El Ajuste, esa palabra envenenada". El ajuste luce inevitable. Pero también está la épica. Esta semana viene con el impuesto a los ricos. Midnight Oil y La Bersuit nos musicalizan.

https://anchor.fm/andres109/episodes/Ajuste--esa-palabra-envenenada-emh202

"Para los ahorristas, los plazos fijos tradicionales perdieron atractivo a pesar de la última suba de tasas. Dada la inflación de octubre, un plazo fijo ajustado por #UVA ya rinde más que uno que paga tasa fija" @lore_giorgio
https://www.cronista.com/brandstrategy/Oportunidad-para-ahorristas-bonos-dolar-linked-y-los-plazos-fijos-UVA-20201115-0013.html

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