Recent publications by EconViews
( 4 mins read ) Those who are “at-risk groups” will remember February 6, 1989: that day the Plan Primavera in times of José Luis Machinea and Juan Sourrouille blew up. Convertibility began in April 1991 and was the product of a difficult summer. There are more examples showing that in Argentina, summertime is a
( 2 mins read ) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Worldwide, states must deal with shortages, bottlenecks and other logistical issues in the effort to vaccinate their populations against Covid-19. Argentina has applied around 200,000 shots of the Sputnik V vaccine, ahead of other South American countries but far from those necessary to inoculate essential workers and high-risk
( 4 mins read ) Last Friday Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa, Axel Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, among other leaders of the governing coalition, gathered in La Plata to rename a football stadium after Diego Maradona. In terms of Argentine politics, this is the closest thing to what could be called “state policy.” Beyond the
( 4 mins read ) The monthly survey of market expectations carried out by the Central Bank among 42 economic teams revealed that the median of the responses is 50% inflation for next year. If the most optimistic and pessimistic 10% are excluded from the sample, the range of responses varies between 39.6% and 57.8%.
( 5 mins read ) Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We do not expect September’s 1.9% monthly rise to continue in Q4.
( 4 mins read ) The International Monetary Fund mission left Argentina last weekend. The official statement published on Friday by the Washington-based organization suggests that an agreement between the two parties is still distant. In its very particular language, it states that guidelines for a program were discussed, a clearly ciphered message indicating that
( 2 mins read ) • The Government was successful in lowering the FX spread from a peak of nearly 150% in mid-October to 85% by early November. To do this, it relied on selling dollar bonds at 16-17% yields as well as auctioning dollar-linked instruments to provide devaluation coverage. The government also made a
( 4 mins read ) The Government panicked when the dollar peaked at ARS 195, and it took a small but noticeable turn toward orthodoxy in the last 3 weeks, as we have reported in previous editions. From a quality point of view, the high profile land squattings have ceased, it embraced the cause of
( 17 mins read ) Editorial: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan The IMF mission that will begin negotiations for a program with Argentina is arriving today. This is the next milestone in the economic agenda. The Government was not able to take advantage of the good sovereign debt restructuring to stabilize the economy. This
( < 1 min read ) Related Reports BRAZIL: Guedes gets it wrong in Davos, Bolsonaro gets it right in Brasilia
( 14 mins read ) Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero and impose limits on the Central Bank’s financing of the Treasury,
( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan The parallel dollar hitting 167 pesos set off all the alarms once again. The rumor mill prior to a long weekend anticipated new measures. They have not happened so far. The more it takes to find a consistent economic
( 15 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial The Central Bank has changed the game. For the first time in a long time, it decided to devalue faster and timidly change the interest rate structure. It left the monetary policy rate at 38% but raised the reverse repo rate from 19 to 24%.
( 24 mins read ) Press play to listen The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina’s social scheme very clearly. Unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good news. Instead of looking at unemployment, we