Does the Selzer Iowa Poll Shock Change the US Election?

Last Update Before Election Day

I'm skeptical of the Selzer survey, but it does raise a few questions and highlights two things to watch for:

  1. Trump has been losing support among older white women in recent months, with this trend accelerating in recent weeks. Is it as bad as the Selzer poll suggests?
  2. Will the strong turnout of 0/4 males (likely Trump voters) in absentee ballots/early voting (AB/EV) carry into Election Day? If they continue to turn out, the decline in support among older women could be offset. However, if we only get the early votes and turnout drops tomorrow, that could be problematic.
  3. Democrats are saying not to worry, as they expect their voters to cast ballots on Election Day. This is unlikely, as voting habits are typically consistent, and Democrats overwhelmingly vote early or by mail. Changing these habits willingly seems doubtful, so I don’t expect it to happen.


John Thomas is a cofounder & Managing Partner at Nestpoint Group. He also serves as a communications and political strategists for the Republican party and Trump campaign.

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