EM FX Strategy
4X Global Research (4XGR) provides substantive research on G20 and Emerging Markets with particular focus on FX. Lead by Olivier Desbarres, a former sell-side senior economist with several years experience leading teams of publishing analysts at some top global investment banks.

We on investment themes where it can truly add value and does not try to be all research to all people. Its top-down, thematic approach, is grounded in both a detailed qualitative assessment of Emerging and G20 fixed income markets and economies and a rigorous quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events too often taken at face-value. 4X Global Research strongly believes that without hard data a report is merely an opinion and its unique charts are a key differentiator.

4X Global Research (4XGR) analysts and experts

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  • Olivier Desbarres

Recent publications by 4X Global Research (4XGR)

US Dollar – Calm before the storm?

( 12 mins read ) The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift out of Dollars remains unlikely

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PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash

( 10 mins read ) Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%). The Renminbi’s steady pace of appreciation will, all other things equal, put further downward pressure on Chinese headline

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Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

( 12 mins read ) Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments. In the past month volatility in major developed and emerging

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Global growth: Collapse, Recovery, Slowdown…repeat?

( 14 mins read ) We are sticking to our forecast, first set out in Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick (5th June 2020) that global GDP, which contracted about 7.0% qoq in Q2 (a number flattered by China’s GDP), will rise a record-high 3.0% qoq in Q3. However, this implies that world

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Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely

( 12 mins read ) Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0.50%), and the modalities of

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UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

( 12 mins read ) Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets have seemingly taken heart from government measures to support the economy,

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Warnings about US economy and USD overblown

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%).

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Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.  

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China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in economic activity and of course extremely “favourable” base effects. This is

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United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going

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Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed

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Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020  from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP. Global GDP growth in

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Conservative FX markets testing (some) extremes

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen FX markets’ conservative approach in face of acute coronavirus and macro uncertainty We argued in the 20th April edition of Armchair Trader’s Daily Newsletter that the currency range-trade was making a comeback. In the past 13 trading sessions most developed and emerging market (EM) currencies, including

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Olivier Desbarres founder of 4X Global Research

Follow @ODesbarres75 on Twitter

i can't wait for this US election to be over. We can then go back to talking about really interesting things which have not been pre-occupying our minds for months and years...such as Brexit

4X Global Research's flagship Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) report is now available on RSRCXHchange, the research aggregator and marketplace platform, at http://www.rsrchx.com.

Check out my latest article: The curious case of Sterling’s outperformance https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/curious-case-sterlings-outperformance-olivier-desbarres via @LinkedIn

Check out my latest article: UK - Are markets ready for GDP bombshell and renewed tightening of local lockdowns and self-isolation rules? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-markets-ready-gdp-bombshell-renewed-tightening-local-desbarres via @LinkedIn

China’s V-Shaped Recovery Under the Microscope

My latest Insight on Smartkarma

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-v-shaped-recovery-under-the-microscope

Major Economies & Currencies – What to Look Out for and Why It Matters

My latest Insight on Smartkarma

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/major-economies-currencies-what-to-look-out-for-and-why-it-matters

United Kingdom: Back to 1999…and to the Future

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/united-kingdom-back-to-1999-and-to-the-future

"Purchasing power is king and consumer confidence its queen…but opportunity to spend is knight in shining armour" [United Kingdom: Anatomy of Economy on Lockdown Life-Support, 18 June 2020]

UK retail sales May data out 07.00. Analysts expect rebond after ugly April numbers

United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support @ODesbarres75
https://speevr.com/2020/06/18/united-kingdom-anatomy-of-economy-on-lockdown-life-support/

#uk #economy #lockdown

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