4X Global Research
We on investment themes where it can truly add value and does not try to be all research to all people. Its top-down, thematic approach, is grounded in both a detailed qualitative assessment of Emerging and G20 fixed income markets and economies and a rigorous quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events too often taken at face-value. 4X Global Research strongly believes that without hard data a report is merely an opinion and its unique charts are a key differentiator.
Recent publications by 4X Global Research (4XGR)
( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%).
( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.
( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in economic activity and of course extremely “favourable” base effects. This is
( 13 mins read ) Press play to listen Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments. Only a handful of currencies appreciated by more than
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going
( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP. Global GDP growth in
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen FX markets’ conservative approach in face of acute coronavirus and macro uncertainty We argued in the 20th April edition of Armchair Trader’s Daily Newsletter that the currency range-trade was making a comeback. In the past 13 trading sessions most developed and emerging market (EM) currencies, including
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this would imply that growth in Q3 and Q4 2019 was effectively wiped out and that GDP in
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X Global Research’s own quarterly global GDP series and its correlation with the global PMI
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand. The implication is that these economies will be in recession – defined
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a significant exogenous or endogenous shock currently beyond markets’ radar screens (an “unknown unknown”) is
( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Developed central banks in the past week have been falling over themselves to loosen monetary policy and secure the proper functioning of financial and credit markets. The Fed, RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Norges Bank have delivered inter-meeting policy rate cuts of between
( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their economic, financial and social impact remains challenging. However, there is little doubt that economic activity in
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen The pace of central bank policy rate cuts has slowed sharply in the past few months (see Figure 1), in line with our view (see Early Christmas for (still weak) global growth, 11th December 2019). While the emerging market central bank policy rate has fallen a