EM FX Strategy
4X Global Research (4XGR) provides substantive research on G20 and Emerging Markets with particular focus on FX. Lead by Olivier Desbarres, a former sell-side senior economist with several years experience leading teams of publishing analysts at some top global investment banks.

We on investment themes where it can truly add value and does not try to be all research to all people. Its top-down, thematic approach, is grounded in both a detailed qualitative assessment of Emerging and G20 fixed income markets and economies and a rigorous quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events too often taken at face-value. 4X Global Research strongly believes that without hard data a report is merely an opinion and its unique charts are a key differentiator.

4X Global Research (4XGR) analysts and experts

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  • Olivier Desbarres

Recent publications by 4X Global Research (4XGR)

Warnings about US economy and USD overblown

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%).

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Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.  

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China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in economic activity and of course extremely “favourable” base effects. This is

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United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going

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Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed

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Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020  from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP. Global GDP growth in

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Conservative FX markets testing (some) extremes

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen FX markets’ conservative approach in face of acute coronavirus and macro uncertainty We argued in the 20th April edition of Armchair Trader’s Daily Newsletter that the currency range-trade was making a comeback. In the past 13 trading sessions most developed and emerging market (EM) currencies, including

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US GDP growth – One extreme to another

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this would imply that growth in Q3 and Q4 2019 was effectively wiped out and that GDP in

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Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X Global Research’s own quarterly global GDP series and its correlation with the global PMI

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National economic recessions – The price to pay

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand. The implication is that these economies will be in recession – defined

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Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a significant exogenous or endogenous shock currently beyond markets’ radar screens (an “unknown unknown”) is

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Emerging market central banks playing catch-up

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Developed central banks in the past week have been falling over themselves to loosen monetary policy and secure the proper functioning of financial and credit markets. The Fed, RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Norges Bank have delivered inter-meeting policy rate cuts of between

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Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their economic, financial and social impact remains challenging. However, there is little doubt that economic activity in

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Asian central bank policy rates – scalpel not knife

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen The pace of central bank policy rate cuts has slowed sharply in the past few months (see Figure 1), in line with our view (see Early Christmas for (still weak) global growth, 11th December 2019). While the emerging market central bank policy rate has fallen a

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Olivier Desbarres founder of 4X Global Research

Follow @ODesbarres75 on Twitter

4X Global Research's flagship Fixed Income Research & Macro Strategy (FIRMS) report is now available on RSRCXHchange, the research aggregator and marketplace platform, at http://www.rsrchx.com.

Check out my latest article: The curious case of Sterling’s outperformance https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/curious-case-sterlings-outperformance-olivier-desbarres via @LinkedIn

Check out my latest article: UK - Are markets ready for GDP bombshell and renewed tightening of local lockdowns and self-isolation rules? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-markets-ready-gdp-bombshell-renewed-tightening-local-desbarres via @LinkedIn

China’s V-Shaped Recovery Under the Microscope

My latest Insight on Smartkarma

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-v-shaped-recovery-under-the-microscope

Major Economies & Currencies – What to Look Out for and Why It Matters

My latest Insight on Smartkarma

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/major-economies-currencies-what-to-look-out-for-and-why-it-matters

United Kingdom: Back to 1999…and to the Future

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/united-kingdom-back-to-1999-and-to-the-future

"Purchasing power is king and consumer confidence its queen…but opportunity to spend is knight in shining armour" [United Kingdom: Anatomy of Economy on Lockdown Life-Support, 18 June 2020]

UK retail sales May data out 07.00. Analysts expect rebond after ugly April numbers

United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support @ODesbarres75
https://speevr.com/2020/06/18/united-kingdom-anatomy-of-economy-on-lockdown-life-support/

#uk #economy #lockdown

Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

My latest Insight on Smartkarma looks at the likely path for global GDP in Q2 and beyond.

https://www.smartkarma.com/start/workspace?type=published

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