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US and UK: The Comeback Kids

The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correction” rather than “another prolonged downtrend”. If anything we were […]

Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of 87 seats in the lower house of parliament and we expect the budget to pass […]

Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations

Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations | Speevr

Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large US twin deficits a…   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]

Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime | Speevr

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments. In the past mo…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery

Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery | Speevr

The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.   This points to a very rapid…   Become a […]

United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future

United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future | Speevr

Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth. […]

United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support

United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support | Speevr

Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going…   Become a member to read the rest of […]

Bank of England’s dovish warning bells ring true

Bank of England dovishness should come as little surprise UK GDP growth was negligible over Q2-Q3 2019 – averaging only 0.04% qoq – and likely remained weak in Q4 at about 0.3% qoq. There are a number of endogenous and exogenous factors, both cyclical and structural, behind this weak domestic growth – a number over […]

Sterling’s made its mind up, UK voters not quite

Sterling’s made its mind up, UK voters not quite | Speevr

Sterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in a world of depressed currency volatility. Markets have seemingly taken comfort from the (modest) widening of the gap between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour party in opinion polls to about 10pp and […]