Argentina: Recalculating – GDP Would Fall Less Than 11% in 2020
Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We do not expect September’s … Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID
Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be financed by borrowing Neither need they b… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter: Our reference G7 multi-year GDP outlook
On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel. 1 This time, the COVID-19 lockdown shock is unques… Become a member […]
CHINA: High unemployment may force government’s hand on stimulus
● China lost 26mn urban jobs between January and March; much of this loss is temporary, but total urban employment could be 20mn below the pre-virus trend by end-2020. ● Policymakers are still waiting to see how far the supply-side recovery can run, but they will eventually be… Become a member to read the […]
CHINA: New infection clusters threaten economic recovery
Harbin, the capital of northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, has suffered the biggest new Covid-19 outbreak in over a month, offering a test case for the government’s ability to contain new clusters. Authorities have demonstrated a willingness to re-impose lockdown requirement… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: 4 takeaways from the first-quarter GDP
China reported a 6.8% year-on-year contraction of GDP for the first quarter on 17 April. Though the number marks the worst quarterly performance since the current data series began in 1992, the weak figure was widely expected, given the near-total shutdown of the economy from lat… Become a member to read the rest of […]
CHINA: Economy ends 2019 strongly, but property troubles lie ahead
● Modest and targeted stimulus was effective in 2019, and recent economic data is positive. ● But recent stabilization is likely temporary; weakness could resume late in Q1. ● The housing market is the key variable for growth and stimulus in 2020. China’s e… Become a member to read the rest of this […]