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Latest publications
US/CHINA: Biden caught between business community and national security hawks
( 6 mins) Press play to listen The US business community has mobilized in recent weeks to press the Biden administration for a less confrontational approach to China, including easing of tariffs and export controls. The broad principles
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
( 4 mins) Multiple countries in CEE are experiencing a surge in Covid-19 cases, which is mostly associated with the spread of new virus mutations. The Czech Republic is considering a significant tightening of measures, while Bulgaria’s government
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: DSSI ‘common framework’ risks facing private creditors
( 7 mins) Ethiopia’s upcoming debt restructuring negotiations will be closely watched by other sovereigns in the region and private creditors alike. While private sector involvement seems very likely, this could take the form of debt reprofiling rather
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Vaccination outlook for H1 2021
( 5 mins) Indonesia leads the larger countries in confirmed vaccine supplies, both on absolute terms and as a percentage of its vaccination targets, for the next few months.The rest of the region promises a catch-up but vaccine
BRAZIL: Pragmatism threatened by Petrobras turmoil, but quickly restored
( 4 mins) President Jair Bolsonaro will talk the talk on ideological platforms but reelection in 2022 calls for pragmatism. There is increasingly little room for far-right policymaking. Stress with the arrest of a Bolsonarista congressman shows the
SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s “no austerity” consolidation budget
( 5 mins) Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s 24 February budget benefits from better-than-expected revenue shortfalls but aims to hold the line on fiscal consolidation over the medium term. Above all, his plan to stabilize South Africa’s public finances
ARGENTINA: Scandal over “VIP vaccines” has government worried
( 3 mins) President Alberto Fernandez continues to fight a rearguard action to limit the political fallout from last week’s revelations about a group of officials, government allies, and the well-connected who secretly received Covid-19 vaccines in violation
UK: Vaccination success leads to lockdown and fiscal debates
( 3 mins) The country’s stellar vaccination performance has had two implications on the policy front. First, the provision of a first vaccine shot to the 15mn most vulnerable people has raised the expectations for an easing of
RUSSIA: Vaccine diplomacy overshadows domestic immunization campaign
( 4 mins) Russia is relying on vaccine diplomacy to bolster its reputation abroad amid deteriorating relations with the West and looming threat of sanctions. Low public trust in domestic vaccines from Covid-19, their production bottlenecks and Moscow’s