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Recent publications by Llewellyn Consulting
( < 1 min read ) Credit market excesses typically occur in times of low interest rates, when investor demand for higher-yielding instruments leads to the creation of asset classes with returns that, in hindsight, were out of line with the risk involved. So it is of at least prima face concern 1 that yields on
( 4 mins read ) Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they are prisoners of their own history. There often seems to be something in a country’s
( 9 mins read ) Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For now, inflation expectations are muted; indeed perhaps too muted for comfort. This points to continued
( < 1 min read ) Life extension aims to extend dramatically humans’ healthy lifespan; but current approaches lack evidence. Related Reports Technologies series – Brain-Computer Interfaces – January 2020 Technologies series – Immunotherapies – March 2020 Climate change and disease spread: from nature to humans Technologies series – Electronic skin – March 2020 Dr. Peng
( 6 mins read ) OECD: second waves and double dips The first half saw the sharpest and broadest contraction in OECD economic activity since the Great Depression. After a rapid rebound in Q3, when lockdowns were eased, recovery has slackened off in the face of viral resurgences. Performance has differed considerably. In particular, the
( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liquidity support provided to date is looking increasingly inadequate. Defaults threaten to
( 2 mins read ) It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pandemic, before staging a partial recovery. − The three-month annualised rate of change in headline EMD
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental. But step back and reflect, and it becomes clear that fundamental changes are afoot –
( 4 mins read ) Safer, smaller, more efficient, the next generation of nuclear power is on the horizon – but not much closer. What it is Next-generation nuclear aims to address the various safety, sustainability, efficiency, and cost issues that afflict older reactors, many of which are scheduled to be shut down in the
( 4 mins read ) Cleaner, less noisy, less polluted, but operating well below capacity. Not being keen on self-isolating, we decided not to travel abroad this year, but rather to have a (ghastly word) ‘staycation’ in London. After all, many people travel far to holiday in London, so why not us – sans the
( 2 mins read ) Europe’s recovery requires that fiscal policy not be tightened prematurely … that the mistakes of the post Global Financial Crisis period be avoided Fiscal policy worldwide has been expanded extraordinarily in response to the pandemic Support to incomes and employment has significantly moderated declines in real activity However, this
( 21 mins read ) Press play to listen Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be financed by borrowing Neither need they be recorded as increases in debt owed to the
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is now exhausted, and progress in structural reform has been sluggish. Outright monetary finance may be
( 3 mins read ) What it is Cancer vaccines enable people’s immune systems to target cancer cells, instead of an infectious agent, such as a virus or bacterium. They aim either to prevent cancer or to cure it. 1 How it works Vaccination is probably the most successful public health intervention in history, and
( 6 mins read ) Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveries Balance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMs Fiscal policy support is withdrawn too soon Real activity takes several years to return to recent highs Near-zero inflation becomes embedded in the euro area A ‘no-deal’ Brexit greatly adds to the UK’s economic