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Recent publications by Llewellyn Consulting
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is now exhausted, and progress in structural reform has been sluggish. Outright monetary finance may be
( 3 mins read ) What it is Cancer vaccines enable people’s immune systems to target cancer cells, instead of an infectious agent, such as a virus or bacterium. They aim either to prevent cancer or to cure it. 1 How it works Vaccination is probably the most successful public health intervention in history, and
( 6 mins read ) Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveries Balance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMs Fiscal policy support is withdrawn too soon Real activity takes several years to return to recent highs Near-zero inflation becomes embedded in the euro area A ‘no-deal’ Brexit greatly adds to the UK’s economic
( 5 mins read ) Rising temperatures and destruction of ecosystems are set to increase health risks Covid-19 shows how an animal-borne virus can wreak havoc on humankind. It is vital that its precise origins and transmission process become better understood, so as to avoid similar, or even more infectious and fatal, pandemics in the
( 4 mins read ) Natural beauty and tech savviness make this small state a perfect remote-working destination I write this overlooking a quiet bay on the Western coast of Estonia. Nearest civilization is about half an hour’s drive away. The only background ‘noise’ is crickets and birds. Estonia is my home country, a tiny
( 2 mins read ) This stands to feed back negatively on the financial sector 1. Consumer credit write-offs typically rise with unemployment. − Interesting data from the Bank of England show that each 1-point rise in the unemployment rate is accompanied by around a 1 percentage point increase in the consumer debt write-off rate. 2. In
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years. Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era. Pyrrhic victories in two world wars only deepened the country’s underlying malaise. An enduring obsession
( 7 mins read ) Press play to listen On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel. 1 This time, the
( 6 mins read ) Press play to listen The recovery process proves beholden to course of the virus Policy support is insufficient and withdrawn too soon Underlying growth potential is further significantly reduced Balance sheet weaknesses spark a cascade of EM defaults A ‘no-deal’ Brexit leaves the UK ‘the sick man’ of the OECD
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen The policy challenges facing the advanced economies are daunting, and many will fail to deliver. No holds barred Fiscal and monetary policy were loosened rapidly and often unconventionally in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringent containment measures taken to bring it under control. Public
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Vast volumes of data can be stored, condensed into DNA. What it is DNA data storage is the archiving and retrieving of data to and from synthetic strands of DNA. Data centres are considered by many, including the world’s top asset managers, as the ‘beating heart’
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Recessions are expensive. Output is permanently lost; and often potential growth is reduced too. In an earlier Global Letter, 1 we reproduced path-breaking calculations made for the UK by the late Christopher Dow. Studying the evolution of post-recession, constant-employment, real output Dow concluded that each recession
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Monetary growth has accelerated, prompting inflation warnings from Monetarists The pick-up reflects extraordinary policy interventions in response to the pandemic Demand for money balances has risen too, although the surge appears to be waning There are also many reasons to expect an extended imbalance of supply
( 7 mins read ) Press play to listen The basic science has long been known: but the planet is warming faster than expected. COVID-19 is a sharp reminder of humankind’s fragility and its linkages with the natural world. Headlines understandably focus on its devastating human and economic consequences. By contrast, climate change may appear
( 28 mins read ) Press play to listen Countries’ labour markets have been hit hard by COVID-19; and the UK more than most The UK is a microcosm of effects likely to be seen worldwide The young, the poor, women, and some minority groups seem destined to suffer disproportionately Immediate and longer-standing inequalities are