Llewellyn Consulting

Llewellyn consulting was founded by John Llewellyn and Partners, a former Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers and Nomura. Previously, John Llewellyn spent over 20 years at the OECD in various senior roles. Now offering economic consulting and advisory with particularly focus on the impact of new technologies and macroeconomics.

We use our depth of experience and breadth of expertise to provide early insight into key developments, turning points, risk, and implications for markets and economies.

Based in the City of London, we operate with a wide network of associates, recognised experts, and business partners, and have global reach.

We serve our clients through a bespoke range of services and subscription-based research.

Llewellyn Consulting

John Llewellyn - AI Impact on the Global Economy

The prospects for monetary policy across the major economies :: Russell Jones

Recent publications by Llewellyn Consulting

FOCUS: Hard labour – the post-pandemic jobs market

June 29, 2020

( 28 mins read ) Countries’ labour markets have been hit hard by COVID-19; and the UK more than most The UK is a microcosm of effects likely to be seen worldwide The young, the poor, women, and some minority groups seem destined to suffer disproportionately Immediate and longer-standing inequalities are likely to be exacerbated

Comment: Forgive us our debts …

June 23, 2020

( 12 mins read ) Total global debt has continued to burgeon in the ten years since the Financial Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic stands greatly to add to debt burdens. Much of the additional debt that has been incurred is unlikely to be repaid. Historically, ‘debt Jubilees’ played a key role in the maintenance of

Global Letter – The EU: on the money

June 15, 2020

( 6 mins read ) The EU’s recovery programme is a potential game changer for the economy and the single currency. Decisive moment In his memoirs, European visionary and revered French diplomat Jean Monnet asserted that: “Europe will be forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions to those crises”. 1 So

Financial repression: a more subtle knife

June 10, 2020

( 14 mins read ) High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.

Technology Series: Satellite methane detection

June 8, 2020

( 4 mins read ) Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Detecting leaks is vital. What it is Methane (CH 4 ) 1 is a significantly more potent greenhouse gas (GHG) 2 than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over the short-term, 3 and is released as a consequence of both human

Global Letter: The economic cost of recessions

June 2, 2020

( 7 mins read ) Dow was fascinated by what may be termed ‘the anatomy of recessions’. One area of interest among many in his tome was whether – or to what extent – downturns reduced an economy’s potential output. There are various reasons why that might be expected, but principal amongst them was the

Macro series – Germany challenges the EU

May 22, 2020

( 10 mins read ) The German Constitutional Court’s latest ruling has opened a huge can of worms. Its judgement on the actions of the ECJ and ECB is potentially traumatic. There is more here than simply the conduct of unconventional monetary policy. Rather, it is a challenge to the entire legal structure of the

Technologies Series – Satellite Mega-Constellations

May 11, 2020

( 16 mins read ) Universal high speed internet access – or a sky full of debris Soon, all our constellations could be LEO What they are Thousands of satellites in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), able to provide high-speed internet and communication access around the world. How they work The technology has long been known; but

Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – May 2020

May 4, 2020

( 6 mins read ) Economic Risks Second infection waves hindering normalisation processes After initial rebound, recovery traces an ‘accordion-shape’ Macro policy settings are loosened further Government debt reaches unprecedented levels High precautionary saving and enduring supply-side damage More nationalism, poverty, inequality, and social unrest OECD: radical uncertainty Falls in GDP in Q2 of up to

Chart of the month – Government bond yields unprecedently low – April 2020

April 30, 2020

( 2 mins read ) Bond yields are extraordinarily, and unprecedently, low … adding to the impetus of fiscal expansion Bond yields across the major economies have fallen to hitherto unheard of levels. The stock of government bonds with sub-1% yields has doubled from about 40% at end 2019 to more than 80%

Macro series – The burden of Sisyphus

April 27, 2020

( 17 mins read ) Focus The pandemic and the reaction to it will result in a surge in public sector liabilities. Gross G-7 debt is projected to rise to an all-time high of 140% of GDP or more. Individual countries have in the past coped with much higher debt burdens. Today’s indebtedness is sustainable

Macro Series – Global Letter – New Beginnings

April 17, 2020

( 5 mins read ) COVID-19 will wreak many changes. Here are ten big ones. War and recovery. The pandemic is being likened by many commentators to a war. In some respects it is. But the analogy is far from perfect. The stock of capital remains in large part intact.1 So does the vast majority

Macro Series – Global Letter – Monetary Finance – Redux

April 8, 2020

( 4 mins read ) Policymakers are not quite there yet, but are edging towards outright monetary finance. Forward thinking We have long argued that what was once considered unconventional monetary policy was here to stay and, if anything, likely only to become more unconventional. This stood to be the case particularly in the event

Macro Series – Postcard – Mexico: unprepared, and unable fully to respond

April 7, 2020

( 4 mins read ) In this country of extremes, COVID-19 will likely hit hard. And many women stand to suffer hugely. With one family member in Hong Kong and the rest in the UK, I have been worrying about the coronavirus outbreak for much longer than have my Mexican friends. For weeks my obsessive

Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – April 2020

April 3, 2020

( 6 mins read ) Economic Risks The sharpest and deepest downturn of the post-war era Significantly higher and lasting public debt More macro policy innovation, including monetary finance Social unrest and humanitarian disasters Damage to already-reduced productive potential A swathe of sovereign defaults across Emerging Markets OECD: freefall The COVID-19 pandemic represents a burgeoning

Llewellyn Consulting analysts and experts

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John Llewellyn
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Llewellyn Consulting
Preston Llewellyn
Russell Jones
Silja Sepping
Soyon Park

Ellen Jones

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John Llewellyn

Lavinia Santovetti

Llewellyn Consultants

Preston Llewellyn

Russell Jones

Silja Sepping

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

26 Jun

We are delighted to announce our new Associate, Savio Figueredo, who will further strengthen our team.

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

25 Jun

We are delighted to announce our new Associate, Stephen Cutts, who will further strengthen our team.

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

22 Jun

We are delighted to announce our new Associate, Saul Eslake, who will further strengthen our team.

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

28 May

How quickly do economies come out of recessionary episodes? Our Partner John Llewellyn looks at the current underlying economic problems in the light of past recessionary episodes in the @RoyalEconSoc webinar.
Our contribution starts at 15min 25s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBxHxHt1KCo

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

18 May

There is much talk of a V, a U, an L, or a tick.
Whatever: our recent Global Letter on recessions and recoveries, quoted by @williamkeegan of the @guardian shows, using historical evidence, that it stands to be many years before countries’ GDP is back to 2019 levels.

William Keegan@williamkeegan

Brexit: a strange idea derailed by strange times Today’s Observer column https://bit.ly/2WEmhI9

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

5 May

Click here to watch the Data Privacy webinar: https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/3537577913967762689

Llewellyn Consulting@LlewellynEcon

This morning, we were pleased to be on the Trusted Network panel with @SecurysUK to discuss data privacy and the economic impact during and after the pandemic. To receive a complimentary recording, contact [email protected] https://twitter.com/SecurysUK/status/1255799620606836736

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

5 May

Our 1-page monthly Economic Risks summarises main risks worldwide. One from our May issue: after an initial rebound, second infection waves hinder the normalisation process, causing recovery to trace an ‘accordion-shape’. For a free trial: [email protected]

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

30 Apr

This morning, we were pleased to be on the Trusted Network panel with @SecurysUK to discuss data privacy and the economic impact during and after the pandemic. To receive a complimentary recording, contact [email protected]

SecurysUK@SecurysUK

Huge congratulations, this morning's virtual breakfast seminar on data privacy during and after the pandemic was very insightful and enjoyable, @LlewellynEcon, @rappidly, @TerriPaddock and Peter Jones (The Trusted Network). We can't wait to share some of the content soon!

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

22 Apr

On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, the Covid-19 pandemic is providing us a stark reminder of our fragility as human species. Climate change remains an even bigger threat in the not-so-distant future. Contact us to access our latest research on the topic.

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Llewellyn Consulting @LlewellynEcon·

21 Apr

Our recent research, quoted by @BenHollandDC of Bloomberg @economics, draws together how our work to date on #Monetary #Finance fits into today's challenging contemporary macro policy context.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/the-money-taboo-that-central-banks-have-shied-away-from-so-far

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