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Recent publications by Llewellyn Consulting
( < 1 min read ) Complex supply chains, traditional manufacturing, and product designs all stand to be transformed Related Reports Next-generation nuclear CHINA: Are multinational supply chains exiting China? CHINA: The latest evidence on supply-chain migration Olam International: Cocoa Against COVID Global growth shaken, central banks stirred
( < 1 min read ) Investors would be well advised to pay close attention to how countries’ structural policies rate Related Reports Macro Series – Focus – Degenerative condition: slowing potential growth Global growth shaken, central banks stirred Argentina: Econviews Monthly Report Focus – Abenomics is found wanting Room and need for more central bank
( < 1 min read ) Please find attached the January issue of our monthly Economic Risks. Below is a top-level summary: A rampaging virus and lockdowns extend secondary dips Immunisation programmes take time to reach critical mass Bankruptcies, joblessness, poverty, and inequality escalate Inflation falls further and remains uncomfortably low Unconventional macro policy support is further extended
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a large trade agreement. While it falls short of the US-inspired CPTTP, it will bring a range of benefits. Particularly important will be whether the US and India choose to become associated. Formation and coverage On 15 November last,
( 2 mins read ) LlewellynConsulting’s Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond details what we judge most likely to happen; and pays particular attention to detailing what we see as the main risks and uncertainties. There is growing recognition of the existential threat of climate change, but not all economies are set
( < 1 min read ) For net-zero GHG emissions pledges to be credible, change needs to happen forthwith Related Reports Global Letter – Climate change: let the numbers speak Global Letter – Tip of the iceberg Technology Series: Satellite methane detection JAPAN: Suga’s climate pledge catalyzes long-delayed debate on energy future Climate change and disease
( 4 mins read ) A potentially vital part of the low carbon economy, decarbonising the hard-to tame-sectors. What it is Hydrogen (H 2 ) has three principal functions: a fuel; a chemical feedstock; and an energy carrier. It thereby has many applications in industry, and the power, transport, and heating sectors. How it works
( < 1 min read ) Secondary dips in activity multiplying before vaccines arrive A US Presidential inauguration surrounded by chaos Inflation falling further and remaining uncomfortably low Fiscal support being extended, further boosting debt ratios Central banks becoming yet more unconventional Real activity taking many years to approach prior trend Charts of the month Related
( < 1 min read ) Credit market excesses typically occur in times of low interest rates, when investor demand for higher-yielding instruments leads to the creation of asset classes with returns that, in hindsight, were out of line with the risk involved. So it is of at least prima face concern 1 that yields on
( 4 mins read ) Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they are prisoners of their own history. There often seems to be something in a country’s
( 9 mins read ) Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For now, inflation expectations are muted; indeed perhaps too muted for comfort. This points to continued
( < 1 min read ) Life extension aims to extend dramatically humans’ healthy lifespan; but current approaches lack evidence. Related Reports Technologies series – Brain-Computer Interfaces – January 2020 Technologies series – Immunotherapies – March 2020 Climate change and disease spread: from nature to humans Technologies series – Electronic skin – March 2020 Dr. Peng
( 6 mins read ) OECD: second waves and double dips The first half saw the sharpest and broadest contraction in OECD economic activity since the Great Depression. After a rapid rebound in Q3, when lockdowns were eased, recovery has slackened off in the face of viral resurgences. Performance has differed considerably. In particular, the
( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liquidity support provided to date is looking increasingly inadequate. Defaults threaten to
( 2 mins read ) It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pandemic, before staging a partial recovery. − The three-month annualised rate of change in headline EMD