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Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out?

Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out? | Speevr

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see “Nominal Effective Exch…   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]

Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities

Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities | Speevr

Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wron…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash

PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash | Speevr

Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%). The Renminbi’s steady pace of appreciation will, all other things equal,…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime | Speevr

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments. In the past mo…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Warnings about US economy and USD overblown

Warnings about US economy and USD overblown | Speevr

The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%). Howeve…   Become a member to read the rest […]

Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters

Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters | Speevr

Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments. Only a handful of currencies appreciated by more…   Become a member to read the rest of this […]

Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants […]

Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine

While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle. In line with our expectations the Chinese Renminbi has depreciated versus (a weaker) Dollar and in […]

Governments and policies adapting to critical known unknown

We argued in Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling (17 January) that “the market’s willingness to look through domestic political and geopolitical events suggests that only a significant exogenous or endogenous shock currently beyond markets’ rada…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

Global growth shaken, central banks stirred | Speevr

The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their economic, financial and social impact remains challenging. However, there is little doubt…   Become a member to read the rest of this article