Former Heads of Sberbank Macro, Economics, and Fixed Income research.
Evgeny Gavrilenkov (former Chief Economist in Troika Dialog/Sberbank CIB) and Alexander Kudrin (former Head of Research of Sberbank CIB and FI analyst in Troika Dialog) are the main contributors to GK EM Analytica. Mainly focused on the Russian and CIS economics and financial markets. The publications will include both periodical reports as well as flash notes on the most important events developing the market.

GK EM Analytica analysts and experts

  • All
  • Alexander Kudrin
  • Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Recent publications by GK EM Analytica

Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions.

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Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate

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Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going

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Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months.

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OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate

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Economy: Making Russia Safe Again

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to local consumers and producers. Amid the recent

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Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018. The fact that the non-oil-andgas budget revenues were some 15% higher

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OFZ: Supportive Combination

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players. If we take into account the high chances of the further contraction of the US

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Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia’s GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked much more encouraging, i. e. well above

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Please don't do this. I don't need a dozen tweets on a Sunday morning demanding that I provide analysis. https://twitter.com/mattfishjapan/status/1307712627246735360

Desde 1940, sólo con Frondizi y Menem Argentina vivió una oleada de inversión privada. extranjera y local. Llegaban empresas y multinacionales a instalarse al país.

Hoy vivimos la mayor desinversión de la historia Argentina, empresas de todo porte cierran, quiebran o se van.

Súper cepo: cómo sigue el dólar después de las medidas que tomaron Guzmán-Pesce - Nota que escribí hoy en Clarin 👇con aportes de:
@jorgecarreraok @LaspinaL @Coloboren @FernandoMarull
@lucasllach
https://clar.in/3iNry94?fromRef=twitter

Gracias @sebacampanario por cubrir un tema tan importante que incluso en estos momentos " casi no se habla" @INECOArgentina
https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/reservas-cognitivas-en-rojo-la-postergada-economia-de-la-salud-mentale-nid2454523

In "China's little Mecca," the town of Linxia, Gansu, every domed mosque has had its dome(s) removed.

All of these satellite images are from Linxia.

This is part of a government program that has hit cities across China.

ICYMI I've launched a new project to track and analyze how PM Suga is budgeting his time. https://observingjapan.com/the-prime-ministers-time/

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