GK EM Analytica
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Former Heads of Sberbank Macro, Economics, and Fixed Income research.
Evgeny Gavrilenkov (former Chief Economist in Troika Dialog/Sberbank CIB) and Alexander Kudrin (former Head of Research of Sberbank CIB and FI analyst in Troika Dialog) are the main contributors to GK EM Analytica. Mainly focused on the Russian and CIS economics and financial markets. The publications will include both periodical reports as well as flash notes on the most important events developing the market.
GK EM Analytica analysts and experts
- All
- Alexander Kudrin
- Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Recent publications by GK EM Analytica
Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible
November 5, 2019
( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions.
Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry
October 18, 2019
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate
Russia’s Monetary Policy: Priorities to be Reconsidered Amid Decelerating Inflation, Slow Growth
October 11, 2019
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen As in early October the w-o-w inflation did not move to a positive territory for another week and remained at zero, it became almost certain that inflation is going to get closer to 3.0% rather than to 4.0% this year, i. e. it will be well
Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions
October 1, 2019
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going
Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down
September 6, 2019
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months.
Russia in Global Context: Resilient to Shocks, But Growing Slowly
August 28, 2019
( 13 mins read ) Press play to listen In recent weeks a flow of rather hot news was unable to ease the concerns about slowing economic growth worldwide, but Russia was not in the spotlight, as such issues as burning rainforests in Brazil, continuous attempts of the UK government to invent a new recipe
OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20
August 21, 2019
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate
Economy: Making Russia Safe Again
July 25, 2019
( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to local consumers and producers. Amid the recent
Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut
June 24, 2019
( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018. The fact that the non-oil-andgas budget revenues were some 15% higher
OFZ: Supportive Combination
June 20, 2019
( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players. If we take into account the high chances of the further contraction of the US
Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles
June 19, 2019
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia’s GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked much more encouraging, i. e. well above