GK EM Analytica

Evgeny Gavrilenkov (former Chief Economist in Troika Dialog/Sberbank CIB) and Alexander Kudrin (former Head of Research of Sberbank CIB and FI analyst in Troika Dialog) are the main contributors to GK EM Analytica. Mainly focused on the Russian and CIS economics and financial markets. The publications will include both periodical reports as well as flash notes on the most important events developing the market.

Recent publications by GK EM Analytica

Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible

November 5, 2019

( 12 mins read ) The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The latter complicates forecasting

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Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry

October 18, 2019

( 9 mins read ) Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate cuts and this fact

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Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions

October 1, 2019

( 9 mins read ) Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going to benefit not only

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Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down

September 6, 2019

( 9 mins read ) Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months. Given that last year

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OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20

August 21, 2019

( 9 mins read ) Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate cuts and this fact

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Economy: Making Russia Safe Again

July 25, 2019

( 10 mins read ) The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to local consumers and producers. Amid the recent hunt for yields a

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Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut

June 24, 2019

( 8 mins read ) Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018. The fact that the non-oil-andgas budget revenues were some 15% higher this May than in

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OFZ: Supportive Combination

June 20, 2019

( 9 mins read ) The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players. If we take into account the high chances of the further contraction of the US interest rates in the

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Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles

June 19, 2019

( 11 mins read ) Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia’s GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked much more encouraging, i. e. well above what could have been

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GK EM Analytica analysts and experts

  • All
  • Alexander Kudrin
  • Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Twitter

Retweet on TwitterTobias Harris Retweeted
b-boy bouiebaisse@jbouie·
4h

no accident that the ur-invasion story, The War of the Worlds, comes out of Great Britain at the height of its imperial power. hell, H.G. Wells makes this exaxt point in the book.

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Andres Borenstein@Coloboren·
10h

Neunquen, de mano de Vaca Muerta, era la estrella en generación de empleo privado formal. We are not in Kansas any more. Datos a abril 2020. Fuente Mterio de Trabajo.

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Retweet on TwitterAndres Borenstein Retweeted
Sergio Danishewsky@sergiodanish·
15h

Acá hay un hermoso texto. Pero hermoso, eh?
Mundos íntimos. "Gracias por enseñarme a ser libre", la dedicatoria que le escribí a mi papá y estuvo olvidada muchos años https://clar.in/3gksPTe

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Retweet on TwitterTobias Harris Retweeted
Bloomberg Asia@BloombergAsia·
16h

Tokyo Governor urged residents to avoid unnecessary and non-urgent travel outside Japan’s capital as new coronavirus cases in the city rose on Saturday https://trib.al/4U1VGX6

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Andres Borenstein@Coloboren·
3 Jul

Las expectativas de infla caen para diciembre pero crecen para los próximos 12 meses. La mediana en 52.5% para junio-21.

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