Former Heads of Sberbank Macro, Economics, and Fixed Income research
Evgeny Gavrilenkov (former Chief Economist in Troika Dialog/Sberbank CIB) and Alexander Kudrin (former Head of Research of Sberbank CIB and FI analyst in Troika Dialog) are the main contributors to GK EM Analytica. Mainly focused on the Russian and CIS economics and financial markets. The publications will include both periodical reports as well as flash notes on the most important events developing the market.

GK EM Analytica analysts and experts

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  • Alexander Kudrin
  • Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Recent publications by GK EM Analytica

Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions.

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Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate

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Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going

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Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months.

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OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate

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Economy: Making Russia Safe Again

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to local consumers and producers. Amid the recent

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Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut

( 8 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018. The fact that the non-oil-andgas budget revenues were some 15% higher

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OFZ: Supportive Combination

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players. If we take into account the high chances of the further contraction of the US

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Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia’s GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked much more encouraging, i. e. well above

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While America's China watchers furrow their brows over whether the Communist Party wants to "export" its ideology abroad, this story reveals, as if it were a scandal, that a US company operating in China said, "We’re not here to promote American values." https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-executive-resigned-last-year-over-chinese-request-for-more-data-sharing-11605896753

Episodio 30 de La Economia en 3 minutos. Esta semana corta vamos con "Los impustos mas locos del mundo". Desde el viento en Chubut a las tarjeta de Larreta a los 14 impuestos de Alberto, el ingenio argentino no tiene límite. Nos acompañan Beatles y Avicci

https://anchor.fm/andres109/episodes/Los-impuestos-ms-locos-del-mundo-emt2e2

Perú colocó US$ 4000 millones en bonos globales en dólares, incluyendo uno a 100 años:
-2032 ~1,90% (100 puntos básicos de spread).
-2060 ~2,80% (125 sobre el Bono del Tesoro 30).
-2121 ~3,25% (170 sobre el Bono del Tesoro 30).

”我们期待美方监管机构尽快与我方就具体方案开展磋商。“ China securities regulator re-ups calls for starting discussions with US to avoid delisting Chinese companies from US equity markets.

http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2020/1121/c1004-31939276.html

This story contradicts widespread claims that companies in China cannot refuse government requests for data or that Chinese authorities simply seize the data they want without asking permission. https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-executive-resigned-last-year-over-chinese-request-for-more-data-sharing-11605896753

Life imitates @Shteyngart, again.

https://amp.scmp.com/week-asia/lifestyle-culture/article/3110512/their-american-dream-sours-koreans-us-eye-return-home

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