JPM on FX/rates | STIs | Wilson psychodrama
JP Morgan analysts quantify the expected impact of the backlog of US Treasury and T-Bill issuance on markets. The maths and Game Theory behind the UK’s rising cases of sexual transmitted infections.
De-dollarization | Changing nexus in commodity prices?
A recent BIS paper looks at the change in correlation between commodity prices and the US dollar. We evaluate whether this shift in paradigm is temporary or permanent.
Krugman | CBDCs | Bitcoin & culture wars
Central Bank Digital Currencies enter culture wars before open public debate.
(2) De-dollarization | Swiss Banking | Block (SQ) shorts
Hindenburg’s flimsy short thesis.
Not “risk-on” or “risk-off”, rather What’s the risk?
In the past fortnight US Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum have oscillated in reasonably wide ranges, with the highs coinciding with the release on 13th July of US CPI-inflation data. The shape of the yield curve today is almost the same as it was on 8th July. &n… Become a member to read the […]
Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly
Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly.  … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage
With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping for… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Fed: Same game, different rules
The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and long-end yields, the US Dollar and S&P 500 trading sideways for the past couple of se… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Have hawks finally lost altitude?
Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatility… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: Central bank seeks to manage RMB expectations without intervention
The renminbi has strengthened by 2.3% against the US dollar this year, raising the question of how much appreciation the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will tolerate. The PBoC probably cares more about the trade-weighted exchange rate than the bilateral USDCNY rate. Auth… Become a member to read the rest of this article