Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly
Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly.  … Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember […]
Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage
With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping for… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of 87 seats in the lowe… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend
In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely move… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?
This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Excha… Become a member to read the rest of this article
US Dollar – Calm before the storm?
The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift ou… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon
It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pa… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen
Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely: The US Dollar which, contrary to bearish expectations and in line with our benign Dollar view, has treaded water in the past six weeks and since the Fed’s tweak on 27th August to its dua… Become a member to […]
Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely
Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0…. Become a member to read the rest of […]
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets have seemingly taken heart from g… Become a member to read the rest of this […]