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Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly

Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly | Speevr

Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly.     &nbsp…   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember […]

Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets

Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets | Speevr

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom.           The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of 87 seats in the lowe…   Become a member to read the rest of this […]

Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend

Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend | Speevr

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely move…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?

Currency seasonality’s slow comeback? | Speevr

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Excha…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

US Dollar – Calm before the storm?

US Dollar – Calm before the storm? | Speevr

The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift ou…   Become a member to read the rest of […]

Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon

Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon | Speevr

It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1.       Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pa…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen

Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen | Speevr

Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely: The US Dollar which, contrary to bearish expectations and in line with our benign Dollar view, has treaded water in the past six weeks and since the Fed’s tweak on 27th August to its dua…   Become a member to […]

Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely

Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely | Speevr

Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0….   Become a member to read the rest of […]

UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy | Speevr

Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets have seemingly taken heart from g…   Become a member to read the rest of this […]