US Economy | GS & GSWM | JPM | Iran-Israel | Russia-Ukraine
Geopolitics and macro briefing. Goldman Sachs outlook is alive and well despite higher inflation
FRANCE: The right fights, Macron benefits?
The members of the center-right party The Republicans (LR) agreed on 25 September that their presidential candidate would be elected in an internal ballot on 4 December. While the decision could help the candidacy of former Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand, the race to decide the c… Become a member to read the rest of […]
FRANCE: State of the presidential race
With around 200 days to go to the 2022 presidential election, no credible challenger to the Emmanuel Macron-Marine Le Pen duopoly has yet emerged. The key factor to watch remains whether the center-right can rally behind a single candidate ahead of the contest. Macron’s… Become a member to read the rest of this article
FRANCE: What to watch after the summer
With politics mostly on hiatus given the summer holidays, September is expected to trigger the unofficial start of the campaign for next year’s presidential election. Below we provide an overview of the key issues to watch in the coming weeks. – ” Anti-pass ” movement: The num… Become a member to read the rest […]
FRANCE: Macron lays out re-election plan – what to watch
Aside from widely reported health measures such as the compulsory vaccination of care workers, President Emmanuel Macron’s speech on 12 July included several cues about the government’s economic policies ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Below we cover the main signposts t… Become a member to read the rest of this article
FRANCE: The inconsequential regional elections
With a record-low turnout of 32%, the first round of the regional and departmental elections on 20 June should not be considered a bellwether of next year’s presidential contest. The poor showing of President Emmanuel Macron’s Republic on the Move (LREM) party and the worst-than-… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
FRANCE: Betting on the post-pandemic bonanza
As the vaccination campaign progresses – around one-quarter of the population has received at least one dose of the jab – President Emmanuel Macron looks determined to leave Covid-19 restrictions behind. Macron seems to be betting that the expected rebound in the second half of t… Become a member to read the rest of […]
FRANCE: Race to break Macron-Le Pen duopoly unlikely to be solved before Q4
The recent announcement by former Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand that he would run in the 2022 presidential election has done little to clarify who will be the center-right’s main candidate. The upcoming regional elections to be held on 20 and 27 June are unlikely to solve the is… Become a member to read the […]
FRANCE: The Le Pen risk – Part II: Not-so-moderate policy
Following last week’s piece on Marine Le Pen’s electoral chances, this note covers the policy risks attached to a potential victory of the far-right politician. Although little is known about Le Pen’s policy platform, the National Rally (RN) leader has progressively soften… Become a member to read the rest of this article
FRANCE: The Le Pen risk – Part I: Electoral politics
With around a year to go to the 2022 presidential election, concerns are rising that Marine Le Pen might have a good shot at taking power. This piece provides a (very early) assessment of Le Pen’s electoral chances and other risks associated with next year’s vote. Ne… Become a member to read the rest […]