report February 7, 2020 Asian central bank policy rates – scalpel not knife The pace of central bank policy rate cuts has slowed sharply in the past few months (see Figure 1), in line with our view (see Early Christmas for (still weak) global growth, 11th December 2019). While the emerging market... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report January 28, 2020 Asian currencies showing some viral resistance Acceleration in spread of novel coronavirus On 31st December 2019, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City in the Hubei Province of China. The virus did not match any other... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report January 17, 2020 Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling US market and macro metrics stable…with the exception of flying equities The metronomic rise in US equity indices to new record highs, spurred in part by the recent detent in US-China trade relations, is understandably making the headlines. The... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report January 3, 2020 What you may have missed and why it matters Financial-market post-mortems for 2019 are out and the bottom line is that the trade was to be long pretty much everything – including US and global equities, bonds and commodities (bar natural gas) – but short equity and FX... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report November 22, 2019 Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased marginally in the past... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report November 14, 2019 Renminbi sticking to well trodden path We noted in “Renminbi depreciation true to form” (6 June 2019) that history was repeating itself, with the Renminbi NEER having weakened in April-June as it had done in May-July 2018, albeit at a more modest pace (see figure... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report July 19, 2019 FX Vol gone AWOL, directionality has not FX volatility remains subdued despite geopolitical tensions and event/policy risks Volatility in major currency pairs has risen in the past fortnight but remains subdued by historical standards, despite geopolitical tensions, including ongoing China-US trade negotiations, signifi... Become a... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report July 10, 2019 Draghi’s ECB legacy – stable Euro, weak inflation European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will step down at the end of his eight-year term on 31 October. Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF – which has implicitly called for looser global monetary policy – will take... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
