EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week Italy – Earlier this… Become a member to read the rest of […]
ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum
Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday’s primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cu… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: Evergrande default now likely, Beijing’s focus shifts to damage control
Evergrande appears highly likely to default on US dollar bonds, contrary to our previous forecast that the company would receive a government bailout. But the government is not adopting a pure laissez-faire approach and will participate in the restructuring, which may incl… Become a member to read the rest of this article
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
Two popular caretaker ministers could attract a significant share of protest votes in Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections scheduled for 14 November. In Croatia, a small right-wing party will attempt to initiate a referendum on the country’s potential entry into the eurozone at the… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
US inflation eases back, China’s output growth slows, Euro-area inflation stays contained. [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-17-September-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Key Developments & Chart o… Become a member to read the rest of this article
MALAYSIA: Positive optics for unity pact, but deal is vulnerable
New prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob struck a deal on Monday, 13 September, with the opposition Alliance of Hope (Pakatan Harapan, or PH) coalition to push forward with electoral reforms. In exchange, Pakatan agreed not to table a confidence vote until August 2022 or oppose nex… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Foreign vulnerabilities, domestic risks: the global drivers of GDP-at-Risk
Bank of England Working Papers by Simon Lloyd, Ed Manuel and Konstantin Panchev