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November 17, 2020

A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations

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( 2 mins)

“To convince people don’t try to reach their head try to reach their heart.” 

― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words
The options from over 1 year ago…
A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations 1
  1. No Deal is the same (rebranded) as an “Australia-style” Deal.
  2. The Irish border issue was addressed at the end of last year until the introduction of the United Kingdom Markets (UKIM) Bill this summer.
  3. The EU’s negotiating position has largely remained the same since last year. The nuances are around state aid rules and fisheries (significant for Scotland and Scottish Independence).
  4. For a Canada-style deal the controversial bits of the UKIM Bill, already scrapped by the House of Lords, must not be reinserted when returned to the House of Commons in early December.
  5. The government has sufficient majority as of the December 2019, General Election, to pass through either deal.
  6. Depending on who you speak to, at best one deal is 70/30 more likely.

Tory (Ruling) Party popularity…

A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations 2

The opposition Labor Party is currently polling ahead.
A special thanks to Carsten Nickel in helping to clarify these points.