COTE D’IVOIRE: Ouattara set to win, yet prospects for post-electoral escalation
President Alassane Ouattara is expected to secure an outright majority in the first round of the presidential election on 31 October. Voter turnout is likely to remain substantially below the 50% mark, which may encourage the opposition to announce the formation of a counter-gove… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
EUROPE: Political risks around the second Covid-19 wave
– Despite differences between national pandemic experiences, the specter of renewed ICU shortages is currently prompting governments across Europe to return to more restrictive measures. – Fears of medical capacity issues might also have a positive effect on public support for… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: Beijing may resist G20’s Common Framework for debt reduction
Beijing is resisting pressure from the G20 to adopt a Common Framework on debt relief that covers non-official, commercial loans to low-income countries. The Finance Ministry refuses to classify China Development Bank (CDB) as an official bilateral creditor subject to the Debt… Become a member to read the rest of this article
SOUTH AFRICA: Is the MTBPS worth the paper it’s written on?
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) includes a less “active” stabilization of South Africa’s runaway debt than promised in June. The government now makes even bigger promises on cutting the public-sector wage bill – a good signal but i… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Comment – Default Options
The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liqui… Become a member to read the rest of this article
US Dollar – Calm before the storm?
The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift ou… Become a member to read the rest of […]
POLAND: PiS moves toward challenging but inevitable coal phase-out
The Polish government appears committed to finally start the transition away from coal in the power sector. This will require difficult compromises with the country’s influential mining unions, and may trigger new protests and lower support for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party in its electoral strongholds. Nuclear power could become one of the […]