Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely
Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0…. Become a member to read the rest of […]
UK/EU: Noise and substance of the internal market bill row
n the future-relationship talks continuing this week, the atmosphere between both sides is at a new low after the UK has begun to contemplate no-deal again publicly. The government has also questioned its own willingness to comply with the existing withdrawal agreement. However, … Become a member to read the rest of this article
ETHIOPIA: Tigray – another battlefront for Abiy
The regional authorities’ insistence on carrying out elections for Tigray’s State Council on 9 September risks a volatile standoff between the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government. It will be almost impossible for the federal government to ac… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA/US: Building the diplomatic architecture of a tech Cold War
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced on 8 September that China will develop a new “Global Data Security Initiative” (GDSI) to promote multilateral rules on cybersecurity, internet governance, and data governance. The initiative is Beijing’s answer to Washington’s “Clean Net… Become a member to read the rest of this article
MEXICO: 2021 budget mixes austerity and pet project spending
The 2021 draft budget unveiled yesterday, 8 September, did not produce any real surprises. The USD 292bn budget is a blend of government austerity; fiscal discipline; some over-optimistic core assumptions; and spending increases for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s … Become a member to read the rest of this article
JAPAN: Suga gathers strength as LDP leadership race begins
The contenders to succeed Shinzo Abe as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and prime minister officially declared their candidacies on Tuesday, 8 September, the start of a short campaign before the vote on 14 September. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga re… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance
With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the forecasts in t… Become a member to read […]