THAILAND: Could protesters and the government be headed for a confrontation?
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has fired a warning shot at protesters for involving the monarchy in their reform demands. The next move is with the protesters, and what they do could determine whether the situation escalates in the coming months. Anti-government demonstrator… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or […]
MEXICO: AMLO to seek fresh winds from allegations against predecessor
Alejandro Gertz, head of the National Prosecutor’s Office (FGR), on 11 August announced that the former CEO of state oil company Pemex, Emilio Lozoya, had filed a legal complaint against former president Enrique Pena Nieto (2012-2018) and one of his most powerful ministers, Luis … Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Global Letter: Our reference G7 multi-year GDP outlook
On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel. 1 This time, the COVID-19 lockdown shock is unques… Become a member […]
ITALY: Wasting time (and money)
The number of daily Covid-19 cases has hovered between 200-300 for weeks, but over the past seven days, the average rose to 400 cases per day. In the immediate term, the main risk appears to be related to “imported cases” from neighboring countries, with the reopening of sch… Become a member to read the […]
SOUTH AFRICA: Lockdown “Level 2” loading
An improvement in daily new Covid-19 cases and falling deaths for two consecutive weeks are expected to allow the government to ease lockdown restrictions to “Level 2.” President Cyril Ramaphosa could make an announcement to this effect as early as Thursday, 13 August, as the gov… Become a member to read the rest of […]