SERBIA: Controversial election will solidify dominance of ruling SNS
The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is expected to win the 21 June parliamentary election by a large margin, as the main opposition parties are boycotting the poll. This suggests policy continuity and a greater concentration of power in the hands of SNS. The contested vote may renew public unrest in the near term, while the democratic backsliding may weaken the country’s institutional capacity and business environment in the longer run.
MEXICO: AMLO’s 2021 roadmap comes into clearer focus
The explicitly more radical, confrontational stance adopted by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in recent days provides the clearest indications yet of his roadmap for the 2021 mid-term legislative and state elections: to ratchet up confrontation with opponents and p… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail […]
INDIA: Modi escapes the blame – for now
The recent resignation of two elected opposition (Congress I) lawmakers from their positions in the Gujarat provincial legislative assembly and their subsequent defection to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would not normally have caused political waves.
GREECE: Well positioned to deal with economic recession
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stands in a strong position after he dealt successfully with the coronavirus outbreak. Less than 200 people have died, and the country prepares to open to tourists from 1 July.
Economically, things are more challenging for the center-right New Democracy (ND) government as real GDP growth moved into negative territory in Q1 and there are concerns that a decimated tourism season will be the main driver of a deep recession.
However, robust economic support from European institutions and, critically, overall political stability provide Greece with a unique opportunity to register a faster-than-expected recovery.
EUROPE: Political risks to managing second waves
Continued ECB activity has bought EU policymakers time to deliver a response to the economic fallout from Covid-19.
From a Brussels perspective, the biggest challenges are timing and coordination.
Beyond fiscal constraints, domestic politics and institutional capacity pose the biggest hurdles for delivering effective and timely economic recovery packages in several countries.