CHINA/INDIA: Border standoff reflects Beijing’s anxieties
New Delhi regards the recent pattern of Chinese “intrusions” across the disputed border as the most serious standoff since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Beijing is apparently responding to Indian roadbuilding along the disputed border, which has strengthened the Indian military’s capabilities in the region. War is out of the question, but both sides are on […]
SOUTH AFRICA: ‘Lawfare’ and other exit challenges
Although ongoing legal battles over government regulations are unlikely to scupper South Africa’s lockdown exit, they compound an already highly uncertain operating environment for business.The already complicated reopening process coincides with a marked rise in infection rates… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me […]
UK/EU: Get ready for border checks – but how clear will the message be?
There is still no date for the high-level meeting between PM Boris Johnson and the Presidents of the European Commission and Council, Ursula von der Leyen, and Charles Michel. However, the once envisaged UK request of an extension to the transition beyond 31 December has become highly unlikely.
Financial repression: a more subtle knife
High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.
PHILIPPINES: Consumers may continue to feel under the weather
Confidence is weak in the government’s immediate ability to manage the public health risks. The only government stimulus program so far is equal to 1.1% of GDP, with the administration’s economic team resisting a legislative initiative for an additional 7% spending plan. As… Become a member to read the rest of this article
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
Despite vast differences in the epidemiological situation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the economic reopening is accelerating. Key Russian cities started easing restrictions earlier this week, Latvia is ending the state of emergency today, 10 June, and Romania is expected to follow suit on 15 June. Meanwhile, Ukraine secured a new 18-month arrangement with the IMF, while the upcoming presidential election and the Covid-19 outbreak in the mining regions are dominating the political discussion in Poland.