UK/EU: Kicking the can further down the road (with or without extension)
As future relationship talks remain complicated, the immediate risk is that the UK decides by 30 June to not request an extension of the transition period beyond 31 December. As discussed since last year, by reducing the ambition of the withdrawal agreement, the most important tr… Become a member to read the rest of […]
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
Japan is extending its state of emergency. Germany’s constitutional court will again examine bond buying in the Eurozone. Argentina is preparing for the official expiration date of its debt exchange offer. The Polish presidential elections will be postponed. Meanwhile, the Philip… Become a member to read the rest of this article
MACRO: Updated summary of lockdown exit strategies
In this updated summary table, we provide an overview of the lockdown exit strategies currently being planned by selected countries around the world, and the surrounding politics. Please click on ‘View PDF’ below to see the table. Do not hesitate to contact us if you want to disc… Become a member to read the […]
LATAM PULSE
This week, Argentina’s debt exchange offer formally closes with acceptance rates currently projected to be low. Brazil should see a “war budget” passed while noise surrounding President Jair Bolsonaro continues. Meanwhile, recent data underlines the fragility of Mexico’s economy … Become a member to read the rest of this article
JAPAN: Government considers what comes next as Abe extends emergency
● On 4 May, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe extended the nationwide state of emergency until 31 May, with the possibility of lifting some or part of the emergency by 14 May. ● The government is still seeking to reinforce Japan’s ability to detect and contain outbreaks ahead of relax… Become a member to read […]
NIGERIA: What is the potential for meaningful reform?
Following IMF’s approval of USD 3.4bn emergency funding, it remains to be seen whether the fiscal crisis engendered by the Covid-19 pandemic may accelerate long-avoided macroeconomic and fiscal adjustments. The government signaled its willingness to engage in pro-market reforms i… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – May 2020
Economic Risks Second infection waves hindering normalisation processes After initial rebound, recovery traces an ‘accordion-shape’ Macro policy settings are loosened further Government debt reaches unprecedented levels High precautionary saving and enduring suppl… Become a member to read the rest of this article