KOREAN PENINSULA: Rumors about Kim’s health roil region at sensitive moment
● Rumors of Kim Jong Un’s incapacitation are unlikely to be true, but a succession crisis would be a major security risk in Northeast Asia. ● The risk is heightened by ongoing tensions between the US and South Korea, which have been unable to agree on hostnation support for US f… Become a member […]
HONG KONG/CHINA: High-profile arrests signal more aggressive legal tactics
● Fifteen high-profile activists were arrested for participating in peaceful but unauthorized protests, signaling a more expansive legal approach by the Hong Kong government. ● In a legal statement whose impact is largely symbolic, Beijing asserted broader rights to comment on… Become a member to read the rest of this article
It Will Be A U-Shaped Economic Recovery Not A V-Shaped One
My baseline view is that markets are much too optimistic about the recovery of the US and world economies. Of course, there is a reason for optimism; the infection trajectory in the US is looking better, as shown in Figure 1 on the left below. According to most models, the peak … Become a […]
ITALY: A perfect storm on the horizon
● The political backdrop is set to worsen in the weeks ahead with a likely adverse impact on the exit strategy. ● As for the 23 April European Council, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will accept the likely deal that will kick down the road the question on how to pay for the tempo… Become […]
EUROPE: The politics of exit strategies
In this piece, we provide an overview of the exit strategies currently being planned by selected European governments and the surrounding politics. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Italy Lockdown time… Become a member to read the rest of this […]