Report

Depressed FX volatility allows for few surprises

Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)
November 22, 2019

Global FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1).

Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased marginally in the past month and is now very low relative to the p...

Become a member to read the rest of this article

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

Subscribe to receive updates from 4X Global Research (4XGR)

Most recent by 4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png" />

report

March 5, 2021

US and UK: The Comeback Kids

The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png" />

report

March 1, 2021

Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png" />

report

February 12, 2021

Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img data-src='https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png' class='lazyload' src='data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==' /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/moodys_logos.004-e1580835473503.png" />

report

February 2, 2021

Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

report

January 18, 2021

Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations

Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)